What to Expect From XRP Price in October 2026
XRP (XRP) enters October 2026 after gaining 48% in the third quarter, its finest Q3 in 4 years. However, the token nonetheless trades 59% beneath its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65.
Strong institutional demand now meets a traditionally weak month, and the information factors to a range-bound October.
XRP Fundamentals Pit ETF Demand Against October Headwinds
US spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) maintain about 1.16 billion XRP, value roughly $1.76 billion. Cumulative web inflows reached a report close to $1.68 billion, in accordance to XRP Insights.
Meanwhile, Ripple hosts its Swell convention in New York from October 27 to 29.
However, XRP has traditionally struggled in October. The token averaged a 5.14% October loss and closed the month decrease in each 2024 and 2025.
Markets additionally value up to a 64% likelihood of a Federal Reserve fee hike on the October 27 to 28 assembly.
Ripple also can launch up to 1 billion XRP from escrow on October 1. In addition, the CLARITY Act failed a Senate vote 49 to 50 on September 15.
XRP’s fourth-quarter power normally arrives later, with median returns of 80% in November and 63% in December.
On-Chain Data Shows Tightening XRP Supply
Glassnode information exhibits XRP change balances fell from about 12.9 billion to 11 billion tokens since April. Roughly 1.6 billion XRP left exchanges in the final two weeks alone.
The largest outflows arrived in the course of the late-September pullback. However, the step-like drops could partly mirror custody transfers.
Outflows additionally preceded the August breakout, arriving two days earlier than XRP jumped from $1.00 to above $1.50.
Daily ETF inflows peaked close to 22 million XRP in late August and 20 million round September 24.
Large holders reportedly accumulated 470 million XRP in 5 days final week. In distinction, Binance’s XRP scarcity index not too long ago fell to its lowest stage since January 2025.
Still, inflows clustered throughout rallies and stayed quiet in the course of the summer season decline. ETF demand seems to comply with value, so inflows might sluggish if XRP stalls.
XRP Price Prediction for October 2026 Hinges on $1.70
On the weekly chart, XRP broke the descending trendline that had capped value for the reason that July 2025 peak. A high-volume August candle confirmed the breakout.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) additionally broke its personal downtrend and sits close to 55, above the midline. XRP holds help between $1.47 and $1.50.
However, the 0.618 Fibonacci stage at $1.70 rejected value in August and once more close to $1.66 in September.
The four-hour chart exhibits a mature symmetrical triangle, with its trendlines converging round October 3. Resistance sits at $1.59, with help at $1.47 and $1.38.
The four-hour RSI reads a impartial 47, whereas decrease highs trace at promoting stress.
A breakout might goal $1.83, about 23% above the $1.49 decrease boundary. A breakdown might ship XRP towards $1.17, the 0.786 Fibonacci stage, about 21% decrease.
Swell and the Fed choice land in October’s closing week. Until then, XRP could vary between $1.47 and $1.70, whereas a weekly shut above $1.70 might arrange November.
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