Bitcoin Beats September’s Curse: Is There Enough Demand for October?
Bitcoin (BTC) closed September with a 6.33% achieve, breaking away from a month that has averaged losses since 2013. The shopping for that carried the rally, nevertheless, has thinned as October begins.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended a 9-day influx streak on Wednesday, whereas long-term holders stepped up their promoting. Meanwhile, a big wall of promote orders sits simply above the present worth.
September Broke Its Losing Habit
Since 2013, September has handed Bitcoin an average loss of 2.41%, Coinglass information reveals. Yet, the month has now closed larger for 4 straight years, from 2023 by way of 2026.
Bitcoin additionally outpaced conventional belongings this time. Santiment famous that gold fell more than 6% in September, whereas the S&P 500 noticed a modest decline.
CryptoQuant reads the beneficial properties as the beginning of a new bull market. It mentioned final week’s shut above the 365-day transferring common confirmed the shift. Its Bull Score Index now sits at 90 out of 100.
October historical past provides to that case. Bitcoin has completed 10 of the final 13 Octobers larger, with a median achieve of 12.73%. Whether the sample repeats relies on who retains shopping for, and the most recent circulation information reveals fewer consumers.
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The BTC ETF Bid Faded Before the Month Ended
US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $998.95 million on September 21, based on SoSoValue. This marked the most important influx day in nearly a 12 months.
Inflows then shrank within the succeeding classes, falling to $31.07 million by September 28. On September 30, the funds posted $148.69 million in internet outflows, and not one of the 12 ETFs recorded an influx.
The slowdown got here days after crypto funding merchandise logged their largest weekly inflows of 2026.
The weaker ETF flows mirror a broader drop in demand. CryptoQuant estimates obvious spot demand shrank by 170,000 BTC over 30 days. In addition, futures demand progress slowed from 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC.
Trading quantity has stayed low as nicely. Glassnode puts mixed spot and ETF quantity close to $6.4 billion a day, on the low finish of its post-launch vary.
Long-Term Holders Started Cashing In
As new demand cooled, present holders offered into power. Holders realized 25,700 BTC in revenue on September 22, the most important single day of 2026, CryptoQuant information reveals.
Long-term holders, who’ve held their cash for over 155 days, performed a rising position. Glassnode discovered their share of all realized revenue rose from 34% to 55% within the week to September 29.
CryptoQuant additionally flagged merchants’ unrealized revenue margin at 33%, its highest since December 2024.
“Historically, stretched margins have preceded promoting and downward worth strain,” the report said.
Still, Glassnode famous that total profit-taking stays nicely beneath the degrees seen on the 2024 and 2025 tops.
A Sell Wall at $85,000 Sets Bitcoin’s First October Test
BTC traded at $84,198 at press time, up 0.9% over 24 hours. Just above that worth, Glassnode tracks a wall of promote orders between $85,000 and $85,500 on Binance. The wall appeared on September 24 and has since tripled in dimension.
On the draw back, CryptoQuant locations first help on the 365-day transferring common close to $80,000. Below that sits Glassnode’s True Market Mean at $77,200, an estimate of the common worth lively buyers paid.
For Glassnode, a confirmed breakout needs ETF inflows to return and quantity to rise as worth clears the wall.
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