Bitcoin Halving Clock Hits 62%: Is the Bear Market Over?
Bitcoin has accomplished 62% of its present halving interval, a stage the place previous bear markets bottomed or got here shut. Today additionally marks day 900 since the April 2024 halving.
BTC trades close to $83,100. The worth sits roughly 34% under its October 2025 peak and about 44% above its July low.
Where the Bitcoin Halving Clock Stands
The community sits at block 970,344, based on the Bitcoin.org countdown. The fifth halving triggers at block 1,050,000, which is 79,656 blocks away.
At the common tempo of 1 block each 10 minutes, that factors to April 2028. The occasion will minimize the block reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.
Measured in blocks, the present interval is 62% full. Some analysts argue the 4-year rhythm might give method to an extended cycle. Historically, although, timing has stayed constant.
Bitcoin Halving at 62% Lines Up With Past Bottoms
Analyst The Rational Root mapped the 62% mark throughout all 4 halving cycles in a chart shared on X.
In the first cycle, that time arrived in early 2015. BTC set its bear market low that January.
In the third cycle, the mark landed in late 2022. The backside close to $15,500 adopted in November 2022, after the FTX collapse.
Other analysts have additionally tried to time the cycle bottom utilizing previous patterns. The present cycle has already rebounded from a July low close to $57,800.
Bitcoin Tops Before Day 550, Bottoms Near Day 900
Trader Jesse Olson in contrast worth motion throughout all 4 post-halving intervals, with earlier cycles scaled to the 2024 halving worth:
“Every prime fashioned previous to 550 days. Every backside fashioned close to or earlier than 900 days.”
The present cycle matches that sample to this point. BTC set its document above $125,000 on October 6, 2025, round day 534.
Today is day 900. Olson’s chart additionally reveals BTC breaking above the downtrend line drawn from that peak.
Why the Bear Market Call Is Not Settled
However, the sample has an exception. In 2018, the 62% mark arrived with BTC nonetheless close to $6,000. Price then slid to about $3,200 by mid-December. That remaining leg minimize its worth almost in half.
Olson’s chart provides a second warning. After breaking their downtrend traces, two of three previous cycles pulled again to retest them.
An identical retest now might drag BTC again towards its July low. Binance Research discovered that comparable rebounds typically revisited their lows.
Diminishing returns additionally reshape the image. This cycle’s drawdown reached roughly 54%, in opposition to 77% or extra in previous bear markets.
Smaller swings haven’t damaged the timing, although. If the July low close to $57,800 holds, the halving clock suggests the bear market could also be over. A break under it will level to a 2018-style remaining leg.
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