Peter Schiff Says Most Stocks Are in Bear Market as AI Leaders Carry the Index
Peter Schiff says 479 US shares hit 52-week lows towards simply 60 highs, an eight-to-one hole. The economist and gold advocate argues most shares are in a bear market.
Schiff says President Donald Trump takes credit score for a booming market. The S&P 500 has returned about 14% in 2026, per Goldman Sachs, so the query is who drives it.
Does the Data Back Schiff’s Bear Market Call?
Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider put the median S&P 500 inventory 16% under its 52-week high in a September note.
Meanwhile, AI shares are holding the index up, the financial institution mentioned. Breadth, which means how extensively positive aspects are shared, sits at its weakest since the dot-com bubble.
Likewise, earnings are concentrated. Liz Ann Sonders, chief funding strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, flagged Wall Street’s concentrated growth in August. She mentioned Nvidia and reminiscence chipmaker Micron will drive a 3rd of 2026 S&P 500 earnings development.
Still, a 52-week low will not be a 20% decline, the regular threshold for a bear market. With the median S&P 500 inventory 16% under its high, fewer than half the index’s members have crossed that line. Schiff’s tally counts new lows throughout US shares, not the depth of losses.
What Happens if AI Leaders Stumble?
However, Goldman sees an alternate path. Snider wrote that lagging shares may catch up if financial uncertainty eases.
Rates complicate that outlook. US inflation hit 3.7% in September, above the 3.6% forecast, elevating the odds of one other Federal Reserve hike. The Fed meets October 27 and 28.
At the similar time, Goldman mentioned greater charges and AI revenue doubts pulled the index’s ahead earnings a number of to 19 instances from 22. That a number of measures how a lot traders pay per greenback of anticipated revenue.
The cut up issues for index traders. A market-cap-weighted fund offers the largest firms the largest weight. Such a fund leans on AI shares whereas the typical holding trails its peak.
Whether laggards catch up or leaders slip will determine how the index and typical inventory converge.
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