Arthur Hayes Plans to Build Derivatives Around AI Compute
Arthur Hayes revealed a brand new essay on October 27 outlining futures and perpetual swaps tied to Flop Network’s proposed compute market, the place AI brokers would pay for computing energy utilizing FLOP.
The plan goals to set up a reference value for compute that merchants might use to construct monetary contracts across the assets AI programs devour.
Hayes Details How FRCR Futures Would Work
In a publish on X, Hayes known as his essay “The Trifecta” and described it as a blueprint for entrepreneurs searching for to construct derivatives for the AI agent financial system. His central thought is {that a} liquid spot marketplace for computing energy might provide the pricing benchmark wanted for futures and perpetual swaps.
The proposed Flop Reference Compute Rate (FRCR) can be calculated hourly utilizing a volume-weighted FLOP value per GigaFLOP of computing capability. Quarterly futures would decide on the final Friday of March, June, September, and December, with contracts utilizing US {dollars} for margin and earnings.
Hayes defined that the dollar-based construction would require a quanto by-product, a contract whose payout makes use of a distinct foreign money from its underlying asset. Because the compute market can be priced in FLOP whereas merchants might desire dollar-denominated returns, pricing the contract would require an adjustment for the connection between the FRCR and the FLOP-to-dollar alternate price.
The proposed perpetual swap would use an eight-hour time-weighted common of the distinction between its buying and selling value and the FRCR to calculate funding funds. As with crypto perpetuals, merchants on the costly facet of the contract would pay these on the cheaper facet, relying on the premium.
Market makers might recreate futures publicity by shopping for or supplying Flop Compute Units (FCUs), which characterize reserved inference capability for a specified AI mannequin and supply time. Hayes’s design additionally requires suppliers to publish FLOP bonds, which they threat shedding in the event that they fail to ship the promised computing work.
Flop’s Spot Market Is the Foundation
The derivatives proposal depends upon Flop Network first establishing a functioning spot market. Hayes argues that current indexes monitoring chip rental costs and particular person AI token costs present incomplete info as a result of each are derivatives of the underlying value of computation.
Under his design, community blocks would report inference duties, the computing work accomplished, and the charges paid to miners. Those receipts would assist calculate the alternate price between FLOP and computing capability, giving consumers and suppliers a standard reference.
Hayes introduced Flop Labs in August 2026, describing its proposed native token FLOP as “meals to your AI agent.” In an August 27 rationalization, the mission argued that autonomous brokers want cash instantly exchangeable for computing assets slightly than cost programs designed primarily round individuals and companies.
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