Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is the September Rally Structure in Danger as BTC Hangs by a Thread?
Bitcoin is trying to stabilize round $78K after posting its fourth straight weekly loss, with sentiment weighed down by the document Binance hack and a $643.3 million withdrawal from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Friday. The asset now sits inside a key demand zone that would resolve whether or not the September rally construction survives.
Meanwhile, the Velocity metric has climbed to its highest stage since late 2024, suggesting that offer is circulating extra actively even as costs decline.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the each day timeframe, Bitcoin continues to commerce inside the broad ascending channel that has guided the restoration from the summer time lows close to $58K. However, the rejection from the higher boundary and the $86K–$90K provide zone in late September has given option to a collection of decrease highs, and final week’s sell-off pushed BTC beneath the channel’s midline round $82K.
The worth is now buying and selling inside the $75K–$78K order block, which fashioned the base of the sharp September rally. The decrease wick printed throughout the hack-driven drop exhibits consumers responding right here, however the rebound has thus far been shallow. Holding this zone would enable BTC to aim a return towards the channel midline and, ultimately, the $86K–$90K provide zone.
Conversely, a each day candle closing beneath $75K would expose the channel’s decrease boundary close to $73K. A breakdown by way of that confluence would invalidate the construction that has carried the worth greater since mid-year and lift the danger of a deeper correction. For now, the channel stays intact, however sellers clearly management short-term momentum.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart gives a clearer view of the deterioration. Bitcoin broke beneath the decrease boundary of its orange ascending channel round October 23, and the subsequent rebound stalled inside the $80K-$82K provide zone, successfully retesting the damaged trendline from beneath. That rejection was adopted by a sharp sell-off as information of the Binance breach hit the market.
Buyers stepped in at the $76K demand zone, which sits inside the each day order block, and the worth has since recovered towards $79K earlier than easing again to round $78K. A sustained transfer above $79K might convey the $80K-$82K provide zone again into play, whereas reclaiming it might open the manner towards $85K, the place the final important rebound was rejected.
On the draw back, shedding $76K would possible set off a check of the decrease fringe of demand close to $75K, the final help earlier than the each day channel’s decrease boundary. Until BTC reclaims the damaged channel, the short-term construction favors sellers, with rebounds prone to meet overhead provide.
On-Chain Analysis
Velocity on CryptoQuant measures how rapidly cash flow into by way of the community relative to the whole provide, making use of the financial idea of cash velocity to on-chain exercise. Rising readings point out that cash are altering fingers extra incessantly, whereas declining readings level to long-term holding conduct and provide transferring into dormant addresses.
The metric fell steadily from roughly 15.8 in early 2024 to round 12.1 in October 2025, a interval in which Bitcoin rallied to its all-time high close to $125K. That mixture mirrored traditional shortage dynamics, with a rising share of provide held off the market. Since then, the pattern has reversed, with velocity rising to roughly 14.6 even as the worth dropped sharply.
This divergence means that beforehand idle cash are re-entering circulation, a sample extra in line with redistribution than accumulation, and one which weakens the supply-squeeze dynamic behind the 2025 rally. However, velocity alone can’t reveal who’s shopping for or promoting. If it retains climbing whereas BTC struggles beneath $82K, the $75K order block would possible face rising stress, which might reverse the entire BTC worth rebound since summer time.
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