Bitcoin’s 7-Week Bottom Signal Just Broke. Here Is What Happened the Last 2 Cycles

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week ending November 8 at $74,968, 0.7% beneath its 50-week transferring common. That ended a 7-week run above a line whose reclaim Galaxy’s Alex Thorn had tied to previous bear market bottoms.

For Bitcoin holders, consideration now shifts to the June 28 weekly shut of $59,517, the cycle’s lowest. Twice earlier than, the similar break left the bear market low intact. Bitcoin, nevertheless, has much less room above its low this time.

Bitcoin Slips Back Under Its 50-Week Moving Average

The 50-week transferring common is the easy common of Bitcoin’s final 50 weekly closes. Bitcoin reclaimed it on September 20, 12 weeks after the June low, in response to Galaxy.

Starting with that $81,195 reclaim shut, Bitcoin completed above the average for 7 straight weeks. The November 8 shut sits 7.7% beneath that stage, although nonetheless 26% above the June low.

The Bitcoin value traded at $75,031 at press time, down 0.86% over 24 hours, per BeInCrypto Markets. That leaves it about 0.6% beneath the common.

The weekly shut additionally landed throughout a weekend of(*2*), which hit lengthy positions hardest. Galaxy’s charts present {that a} reclaim made after a backside has been misplaced earlier than, although solely twice.

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The Last 2 Cycles Lost the Line and Kept Their Low

Thorn, head of firmwide analysis at Galaxy, counted 5 post-bottom reclaims of the common since 2012. That complete contains September’s.

Of the 4 earlier than it, the 2015 and 2023 reclaims held till Bitcoin regained its prior high. The different two gave manner, but each bear market lows survived.

Here is how these two breaks performed out.

2011-12 cycle

• Bitcoin reclaimed the line in January 2012 with a detailed 18% above it.
• It fell again beneath three weeks later and stayed there for 20 weeks.
• Its lowest shut of $4.39 nonetheless sat 99% above the 2011 bear low.
• Bitcoin regained its prior high in February 2013.

2019-20 cycle

• The May 2019 reclaim began from a 5.7% cushion and held for 29 weeks.
• Bitcoin then dipped beneath 5 instances, the worst throughout the March 2020 COVID-19 crash.
• Its lowest shut of $5,359 stayed 68% above the 2018 bear low.
• Bitcoin regained its prior high in December 2020.

In each circumstances, Bitcoin regained its prior high inside two years of the reclaim.

Why Bitcoin’s 2026 Cushion Looks Thinner

At its September reclaim, Bitcoin closed about 36% above its June low. In 2019, the reclaim shut sat about 79% above the bear low, and in 2012 about 223% above. 

By one other measure, the present pullback has already gone additional than in 2020. The November 8 shut sat 7.7% beneath the reclaim shut, in contrast with 6.5% at the 2020 low.

The 2012 retest fell 38.1% from its reclaim shut. The same drop from $81,195 would take Bitcoin to roughly $50,260, beneath the June low.

Thorn, nevertheless, cautions that the measurement of the cushion has not reliably predicted outcomes. The 2012 reclaim failed from 18% above the line, whereas the 2015 reclaim held from 8%.

Galaxy’s chart additionally flags 2 closes above the line in December 2021 and March 2022. Both got here earlier than that cycle’s low, and a decrease low adopted.

Thorn’s discovering due to this fact covers solely reclaims made after a Bitcoin bear market low. He additionally confused how small the pattern is.

“Caveat: 5 reclaims is the entire pattern, and “backside in” is simply identified in hindsight. for 2026 it means $59,517 holding,” he mentioned.

What Bitcoin Needs to Keep the Bottom Call Alive

The first take a look at is the next weekly close against the 50-week common, presently close to $75,488. Below that sits the 200-week transferring common at $67,746.

The June low of $59,517 is the stage Thorn says should maintain for the Bitcoin backside name to face. In the 4 accomplished bear markets on Galaxy’s chart, no shut after a post-bottom reclaim fell beneath the low.

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