Bitcoin Flashes Rare Buy Signal Not Seen Since $49,000 And $74,000 Bottoms
Bitcoin flashed a short-term “purchase” sign that beforehand marked the $49,000 and $74,000 swing lows, in line with on-chain analyst Frank (@FrankAFetter), a quant at Vibe Capital Management. “Officially bought the Oversold print on the short-term holder MVRV bollinger bands,” he wrote on X, pointing to prior occurrences through the “Yen Carry Unwind” round $49,000 and the “Tariff Tantrum” close to $74,000, including a 3rd occasion “Today – $108k.
The metric in focus blends the short-term holder market-value-to-realized-value (STH-MVRV) ratio with Bollinger Bands to seize when newer cash commerce at statistically depressed valuations versus their value foundation. In the chart Frank shared, the STH-MVRV Bollinger oscillator probed the oversold threshold that beforehand aligned with native exhaustion of promoting.
More Reasons To Be Bullish For Bitcoin
On a companion panel, the STH-SOPR gauge—spent-output revenue ratio for cash youthful than roughly 155 days—stays beneath 1.0, signaling that latest patrons are realizing losses into the tape moderately than earnings. “Short-term holders (prime patrons) are in ache & realizing losses,” Frank famous, emphasizing that “STH-SOPR isn’t high!”
Positioning has additionally turned cleaner in derivatives. “Longs bought ‘delevered’ on daily basis final week—that’s seven straight days of magic blue dots,” he mentioned, describing persistent lengthy liquidations and balance-sheet shrinkage amongst leveraged bulls. He is now “looking ahead to the flip: once they hand over and begin shorting with leverage (precisely on the improper time), offering gas for a possible aid squeeze.”
Macro context could also be additive, in his view. “Gold hit new highs final week. ‘Gold leads, bitcoin follows.’ The yellow metallic typically seems to be round corners, and it is perhaps sniffing out the debasement commerce headed into 2026 because the administration stokes the economic system for mid-terms,” he wrote, suggesting a possible catch-up dynamic if Bitcoin lags the transfer in bullion.
Risk markers stay clearly outlined. Frank pegs the short-term holder realized worth—an aggregate cost basis for latest cash—at $108,800. “If BTC breaks down beneath the short-term holder value foundation of $108.8k, it could need to examine demand on the 200-day shifting common, which sits at $101k.”
That layered help map frames the oversold print as a tactical sign inside a still-intact longer-term uptrend, but it surely additionally acknowledges that violations of STH value foundation can lengthen exams towards the cycle’s major pattern gauge.
Taken collectively, the confluence of those alerts presents a robust confluence, in line with Frank. Whether historical past rhymes once more will hinge on spot demand rising above short-term value foundation and on whether or not any shift towards aggressive shorting gives the gas for a squeeze. As Frank summarized, “If we’re in a bull market—and I imagine we’re—that is the sort of conduct that sometimes units the stage for the subsequent leg increased.”
At press time, BTC traded at $111,382.
