September Is the Worst Month for Crypto — Why 2025 Could Be Different
For greater than a decade, September has been the worst month for crypto. Bitcoin has posted a median September return of –3.1% since 2013, whereas Ethereum’s is even weaker at –12.7%. Historic collapses — like Bitcoin’s –19% drop in 2014 or Ethereum’s –21% fall in 2017 — gave rise to the phrase “crypto September blues.”
Last 12 months broke the sample barely. Bitcoin gained 7.1% and Ethereum rose 3.2% in September 2024, helped by the launch of ETFs and a 50-basis-point charge minimize. That confirmed the “curse” may bend underneath new drivers. Now in 2025, with each belongings close to all-time highs and a number of structural helps in play, the key query is whether or not this crypto September lastly breaks the sample.
A Look Back: Why September Is the Weakest Month
The poor repute of September rests on three foundations: market construction, macro cycles, and sentiment.
Historically, alternate reserves had been high, that means loads of provide able to promote. At the identical time, revenue provide was low — not sufficient holders in revenue to entice others, making panic promoting simpler.
The macro backdrop usually added gasoline. Following 2021, the COVID aftershocks and tightening liquidity led to September being the month when rallies stalled.
The drawdowns had been brutal:
- 2014: Bitcoin –19%
- 2015: Ethereum –45% in its worst September.
- 2019: Bitcoin –14%, Ethereum, a minor 3.95% achieve
- 2022: BTC and ETH shed 3.10% and 14.6% respectively (tightening crushed danger belongings)
Even when cycles had been sturdy, crypto September had a approach of slicing into momentum.
On September 1, 2025, Bitcoin’s dominance was 58.45% and Ethereum’s 14%, virtually unchanged from early Sept 2024. Together, they nonetheless command >72% of crypto, so their strikes set the tone for this crypto September.
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Why September 2025 Feels Different
This 12 months, the setup has shifted. Exchange provide is leaner, ETFs are structural consumers, stablecoin reserves are at document highs, and derivatives positioning may gasoline quick squeezes.
Exchange Reserves Are Down
Supply on exchanges has thinned in contrast with final 12 months:
- Bitcoin: down from about 3.0 million BTC (September 4, 2024) to 2.4 million BTC now.
- Ethereum: down from 19.3 million ETH to 17.3 million ETH.
Unlike previous September, there may be much less coin sitting on exchanges able to promote.
And guess what, September accumulation, led by the whales, appears to have began already:
ETFs Are a Structural Force
Spot ETFs now anchor demand:
- Bitcoin ETFs: lifetime inflows $54.58 billion, already +$332.76 million in September.
- Ethereum ETFs: lifetime inflows $13.49 billion.
ETFs act as a structural absorber of promoting strain, one thing that merely didn’t exist in earlier cycles, not less than not this aggressively. Early September flows look cautious, with positioning possible tethered to the upcoming Fed choice.
Stablecoin Reserves Provide Dry Powder
Stablecoin balances — the dry powder for re-entry — have practically doubled:
- September 4, 2024: $28.4 billion.
- September 4, 2025: $54.9 billion.
This cushion means capital is already on-chain if there are worth dips, in contrast to prior crypto Septembers.
Institutions Are Buying
Public firms and treasuries proceed to build up. The prime 100 public Bitcoin treasury firms, together with the likes of MicroStrategy, collectively maintain 998,613 BTC. On Ethereum, Sharplink Gaming disclosed 837,230 ETH holdings as of August 31. And different big names like Bitmine exist, too, with regards to gobbling up the ETH provide.
These gamers step in on dips, creating buffers that had been predominantly absent in earlier cycles, not less than for each BTC and ETH. Bitcoin at all times had an institutional following, however on this cycle, even ETH has picked up tempo.
Are There Still September-Specific Risks?
Even with stronger constructions, September retains its dangers, though they aren’t as compelling as they had been earlier.
High Profit Supply
- Bitcoin in revenue: from 73.8% in Sept 2024 to 90.1% at this time.
- Ethereum in revenue: from 69.9% to 95.9%.
Plenty of holders could lock in features. During weaker months, with the September bias already adverse, merchants sitting on revenue could be extra vulnerable to revenue reserving.
But there exists a hope. ETFs and treasuries soak up outflows quicker than in previous cycles.
Weakness in Bitcoin Withdrawal Addresses
Bitcoin withdrawal addresses fell from 37,745 (September 4, 2024) to fifteen,241 at this time. That alerts softer conviction in self-custody. However, a spike to 62,977 on September 3 suggests consumers nonetheless step in on dips.
Fewer distinctive withdrawers usually suggest much less motion to self-custody and doubtlessly softer spot accumulation. This barely adverse narrative would possibly flip if the charge cuts are available in, as BTC accumulation (primarily by ETFs) is thought to enhance when liquidity is available in.
With alternate reserves decrease, this danger is much less damaging than in previous crypto Septembers, which is sort of a silver lining regardless of the withdrawal tackle issues.
Macro Crosswinds
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.22% alerts larger borrowing prices and a stronger choice for safer returns. When yields are elevated, capital usually shifts away from danger belongings like Bitcoin, tightening liquidity and tempering bullish momentum.
Bitfinex analysts, in an unique bit to BeInCrypto, highlighted macro jitters as a cause for a potential correction:
“Major cryptocurrency belongings endured a troublesome week as macro jitters and the post-PPI sell-off weighed closely on worth motion. This pullback is in keeping with our thesis that in the summer time months BTC is prone to be susceptible to retracements and vary buying and selling. BTC is now down over 13 % from its current all-time highs, and whereas buying and selling under the January peak just isn’t an encouraging sign, we imagine the market is nearing the backside of this downturn as we transfer into September”, they stated on Septmeber 2, 2025.
Gold at its highest level underscores a choice for safer havens.
The Fed is predicted to chop charges this month, a tailwind that helped September 2024 keep inexperienced. It is price noting that the final time the Fed minimize charges in September (2024), Bitcoin noticed a month of high ETF inflows. This could be an optimistic signal for the market, as highlighted in the dialogue earlier.
Could This Be the September That Breaks the Curse?
For over a decade, crypto September has been synonymous with drawdowns, panic, and the worst month for crypto narrative. But 2025 presents a stronger toolkit: thinner alternate reserves, ETF demand exceeding $68 billion, doubled stablecoin firepower, and establishments that actively purchase dips.
Some analysts nonetheless undertaking the dangers:
Yes, dangers stay — high revenue provide, weaker Bitcoin withdrawals, elevated yields. But in comparison with earlier cycles, mitigation is stronger. If momentum holds, this could possibly be the crypto September that breaks the sample.
And if new all-time highs are reached this month, one thing that is still a risk with each BTC and ETH nonetheless hovering round the highs, the irony could be historic. September, as soon as the worst month for crypto, would develop into the month a brand new cycle actually started.
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