Bitcoin May Defy September Slump as Exchange Supply Hits Multi-Year Low
September has historically been a tough month for Bitcoin (BTC), with worth charts usually exhibiting weak point. However, some specialists predict a possible surge, pointing to falling alternate reserves as a sign of upward momentum.
The optimistic outlook comes regardless of Bitcoin’s current struggles. The largest cryptocurrency has slipped 2% over the previous week, reflecting broader market uncertainty.
Bitcoin Outlook: Seasonal Lows or Rally Ahead?
According to knowledge from Coinglass, Bitcoin’s average return in September stood at -3.33%, making it the cryptocurrency’s worst month. BTC ended the month in purple for six consecutive years between 2017 and 2022, making its prospects for this year also somber.
Notably, many specialists agree on this angle. An analyst has characterized the present market as resembling a ‘basic inventory market high.’ This indicated potential vulnerability to additional corrections.
Furthermore, analyst Timothy Peterson highlighted that Bitcoin’s value dipped 6.5% final month. The analyst predicted a price range of $97,000 to $113,000 by the end of September, reflecting a continuation of this pattern.
‘It’s a part of a seasonal sample that has performed out over a few years,” Peterson added.
Meanwhile, many anticipate that whereas declines could come, the coin will bounce again subsequent quarter. Based on previous patterns, October and November are the strongest months for Bitcoin, so that might very effectively occur.
“Historically, Bitcoin has at all times bottomed out in September after the yr of the halving. After that, it’s principally easy crusing. Despite me often not wanting on the previous and utilizing it as a sign for accuracy (I have a look at worth motion at the moment). Looking at charts proper now, this might truly very effectively play out once more,” Crypto Nova wrote.
This view is supported by Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse. He noted that September usually marks a low level in post-halving years, usually adopted by a rebound right into a market cycle peak within the fourth quarter.
Nonetheless, some preserve a extra optimistic view. Data shared by crypto analyst Rand confirmed a gradual decline in BTC held on exchanges. Moreover, the alternate provide has plunged to a six-year low.
This alerts diminished promoting strain. In addition, if demand will increase, this shrinking provide can assist a extra bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
“Bullish provide shock,” Cade Bergmann added.
Rand additionally emphasised that momentum seems to be reversing from adverse to optimistic, signaling a possible shift in market sentiment. With just below two weeks till the market anticipated Fed rate cuts, the analyst prompt the coverage shift may present the catalyst for a stronger restoration in September.
Lastly, market watchers are additionally eyeing key dates. Analyst Marty Party pointed to September 6 as a possible set off, tied to market maker exercise.
“Bitcoin market makers have cooked on the sixth of every month. IMO: Sept sixth is a transfer. That’s the occasion window until Sept seventeenth FOMC,” he said.
#Bitcoin is just one.7% of world unbacked fiat. That means 98.3% of the foreign money provide continues to be ready to be disrupted. WE ARE SO EARLY. pic.twitter.com/Bh2Zi2v89p
— Carl ₿ MENGER
(@CarlBMenger) September 3, 2025
Now, Bitcoin’s worth stays below strain, with specialists divided on whether or not September will mark a backside or a continued decline. The coming weeks, notably across the forecasted Fed determination, can be critical in determining whether the cryptocurrency can defy its seasonal weak point and capitalize on the present provide dynamics.
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