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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will Today’s FOMC Rate Cut to 4.25% Spark the Next Big Move?

Bitcoin is holding round $116,200 on Wednesday as the Fed gears up for its first charge lower of 2025. The FOMC is broadly anticipated to trim charges by 25 foundation factors, bringing the goal down to 4.25%. That transfer — and Powell’s feedback proper after — may very well be the spark that decides whether or not BTC rips towards $130K or slips again towards $114K.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technicals: Rising Wedge and Key Levels

Bitcoin is testing a critical zone as worth motion consolidates slightly below $117,300. On the 30-minute chart, the construction has shaped a rising wedge, a sample that usually means fading momentum in uptrends.

The rejection at level D of the wedge reveals sellers are in management, particularly with the RSI under 50, indicating weakening bullish power.

The focus is now on the $115,800–$114,900 zone, anchored by the 200-MA and the decrease boundary of the channel. A break under this space might lengthen losses to $114,400 and $113,200, areas which were purchase zones.

Above $115,800, bulls can retest $117,300. Clearing that might open up $118,500 and $119,350 on the chart.

Momentum indicators are impartial. The 50-MA is above worth, bearish short-term, however a bullish engulfing or hammer close to assist might set off a reversal.

For merchants, $115,800 is the line in the sand: above that and we will go lengthy into $118K–$119K, under that and we danger a deeper pullback. In the greater image, increased lows throughout the construction nonetheless favor a push to $130,000 in the subsequent few months.

Rate Cut, Politics and Market

The charge lower comes at a politically charged time. Trump has been pushing for sooner easing and put in former White House adviser Stephen Miran to the Fed board this week. His failed bid to take away Governor Lisa Cook nonetheless reveals ongoing stress over the central financial institution’s independence.

Trump has repeatedly known as Jerome Powell “too late” on cuts, including stress to act now.The dot plot will probably be key, exhibiting the place policymakers see charges going for the remainder of 2025. In June, they noticed two cuts, however now merchants are pricing in three if the labor market weakens extra. For Bitcoin, immediately may very well be the set off.

A dovish tone will increase danger and ship BTC to resistance and probably $130,000 by 12 months finish. A cautious Fed could have crypto consolidating close to present ranges till consumers get again in.

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