Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket as NFL Season Fuels $500 Million Prediction Market Surge
Prediction markets warmth up in September, with Kalshi storming previous business peer and market rival Polymarket.
Kalshi recorded a surge in buying and selling exercise, repositioning itself as a US-regulated platform, the frontrunner within the sector.
NFL and Sports Betting Drive Prediction Market Adoption
According to Dune knowledge, Kalshi’s market share jumped from simply 5% initially of 2025 to over 60% by September.
Weekly buying and selling volumes soared to greater than $500 million following the kickoff of the NFL season, rivaling the degrees often seen solely throughout US elections.
Sports markets have confirmed to be Kalshi’s breakout class. A partnership with Robinhood in March launched retail-friendly prediction markets round professional and school soccer, accelerating adoption.
Analysts notice that Kalshi’s regulated standing within the US has given it an edge in tapping mainstream sports activities bettors. Meanwhile, the Polymarket prediction platform is making headway within the American market following regulatory purview with the CFTC.
The NFL impact was decisive. By the primary week of the season, Kalshi’s weekly quantity matched ranges sometimes seen in presidential election years, cementing sports activities as a strong new development driver for prediction markets.
“Kalshi has completed $441 million of quantity for the reason that NFL kickoff. NFL week 1 is the same as a US election. Probably nothing,” Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour shared on X (Twitter) lately.
Coinbase vs Binance, however for Prediction Markets
Industry observers typically body the Kalshi-Polymarket rivalry as a mirror of the Coinbase vs Binance dynamic in crypto.
This twin strategy highlights the race to turn into the common liquidity layer for prediction markets by means of regulatory compliance and decentralization.
Kalshi’s recent partnerships with Solana and Base counsel it is usually making ready to bridge the crypto-native viewers.
In September, the trade launched an ecosystem hub to fund builders, creators, and new prediction merchandise.
With Paradigm backing its technique, Kalshi is transferring past politics and sports activities into leisure, esports, and even monetary market occasions.
Meanwhile, as Polymarket closes in on a US relaunch, CEO Shayne Coplan confirmed CFTC approval for reentry. The transfer may put the platform immediately competing with Kalshi in its dwelling market.
Before that occurs, nonetheless, Kalshi is having fun with one in all its strongest months in almost a yr. Dune knowledge shows it reported $1.3 billion in buying and selling quantity in September, surpassing Polymarket’s $773 million mid-month tally.
Both corporations are making ready new funding rounds, with Polymarket’s valuation at $9–10 billion and Kalshi’s close to $5 billion.
With sports activities betting, crypto integrations, and political wagers all converging, prediction markets seem poised to interrupt into the monetary mainstream.
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