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Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Fed Just Cut Rates – Is a Surprise Effect About to Jolt BTC?

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Bitcoin spent the early weekend bouncing round however stored its footing above $116,000, with an intraday low close to $116,024. That resilience extends a three-week restoration as threat urge for food improves after the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps price reduce, which lowered the goal vary to 4.00%–4.25%.

Just as essential, the Fed’s outlook softened: the median path factors to 3.6% for 2025, easing additional to 3.4% in 2026 and three.1% in 2027. If these estimates maintain, the market may nonetheless see two extra 25-bp strikes (or one 50-bp step) this 12 months.

Lower anticipated coverage charges have a tendency to loosen monetary circumstances, and crypto—being the furthest out on the danger curve—typically feels the upside first. Layer in regular institutional curiosity and company treasury consideration, and also you’ve bought a constructive backdrop for BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin price prediction appears bearish as BTC continues to monitor a rising channel. After finishing an ABCD advance, value light from the wedge prime close to $118k–$119k and is now grappling with a provide band at $116.2k–$116.8k.

The 50-SMA ($116,050) is capping rebounds intraday, whereas the 200-SMA (~$113,350) and a prior shelf at $114,400 outline demand.

Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Candlesticks present spinning-top hesitation (small our bodies, higher wicks), and RSI ~47 confirms cooling momentum, not capitulation.

The construction of upper lows stays intact until $113,300 breaks—solely then does the danger skew towards a deeper mean-reversion.

Key ranges

  • Support: $114,400–$114,600; $113,350–$113,300
  • Resistance: $116,200–$116,800; $117,980; $119,150

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Trade plan and dangers

For novices, persistence close to assist beats chasing into resistance. Consider a buy-the-dip provided that value revisits $114,400–$114,600 and prints a bullish hammer or engulfing on the 4H shut—proof that consumers absorbed provide. Place a cease under $113,200 (below the 200-SMA and final swing low) to preserve threat outlined.

First take-profit sits at $116,600 (mid-supply/50-SMA), with a second goal at $117,980; if momentum flips decisively—assume three white troopers or a robust break-and-hold above the blue zone—go away a runner towards $119,150.

If as an alternative you see three black crows driving a shut under $113,300, step apart. That would sign the channel has failed and opens room towards $112,100. Big image, the Fed’s gentler path and rising institutional demand preserve the upside case alive, however the chart nonetheless calls for affirmation above $116.8k for the following leg increased.

A real “shock impact” may arrive if incoming information nudges the Fed even sooner—gasoline for a momentum pop—but disciplined entries and exits stay your finest edge.

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