Key Fed Data This Friday Adds More Uncertainty After $1.8B Crypto Crash – Bitcoin $107K or $130K?

Key Federal Reserve (Fed) information this week, together with speeches from Chair Jerome Powell, alongside Friday’s launch of the vital PCE inflation figures, are shaping up as essential crypto market drivers.

After Monday’s $1.8 billion crypto liquidation shook investor confidence, merchants are bracing for contemporary alerts on the Federal Reserve’s coverage stance that would ripple throughout threat belongings.

For Bitcoin, analysts stay sharply divided on whether or not the world’s largest cryptocurrency is headed for a retracement towards $107K or making ready for a breakout that would ship it past $130K, with macro uncertainty amplifying each transfer.

Upcoming Fed Data Signal Caution on Rate Cuts

Monday’s hawkish tone emerged when St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem voiced issues about additional fee cuts past September’s 25 basis point reduction, citing inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal regardless of a softening labor market.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic strengthened this warning, projecting just one fee minimize for 2025 with core inflation at 3.1% and unemployment rising to 4.5% by year-end.

BREAKING:

FED PRESIDENT BOSTIC JUST SAID THERE’S NO REASON FOR FURTHER RATE CUTS THIS YEAR! pic.twitter.com/0oiUJHKxBi

— Coinvo (@ByCoinvo) September 22, 2025

Markets reacted swiftly, with a stronger greenback, rising Treasury yields, and lowered expectations for a November fee minimize.

Bitcoin tumbled to $111,800, erasing weekly good points as $1.8 billion in crypto liquidations dragged the overall market cap all the way down to $3.89 trillion.

Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at MEXC Research, advised Cryptonews that macro catalysts are driving BTC between $107K draw back threat and a possible $135K restoration.

Over 407,000 merchants have been liquidated as Bitcoin fell beneath $112,000 and Ether dropped underneath $4,150, marking the most important flush-out of 2025.

Crypto equities additionally declined, with treasury companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR), Metaplanet, and Bitmine falling regardless of asserting new digital asset purchases.

“This displays investor skepticism in portfolio growth till there’s readability on market path and macro affect,” Young added.

Analyst Sees Inflection Point as Catalyst for Bitcoin $107K Support or $130K Breakout

The MEXC analyst sees Bitcoin at an important inflection level as cycle exhaustion alerts emerge.

His evaluation exhibits sustained closes beneath $112,000 threat pulling BTC towards $107,000 help, a degree bulls should defend to forestall deeper retracement to the vital $100,000 mark.

“Recent liquidations could trigger short-term ache, however they’re typically wholesome rebalancing, particularly at this scale. Many individuals view this pullback as an accumulation alternative slightly than capitulation,” Young famous.

He initiatives a sustained break above $117,000 will sign bull management, opening worth discovery towards $130,000-$135,000 earlier than the present cycle ends.

Similarly, macroeconomic insights shared with Cryptonews from Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, concentrate on the Fed’s most popular inflation measure.

Magadini believes the Fed is extra frightened about jobs, however general will proceed to observe each inflation and unemployment.

He added that Powell himself confirmed appreciable uncertainty across the present surroundings.

“I proceed to consider the largest driver of asset costs, particularly Gold and Bitcoin, revolves across the Fed’s independence,” he mentioned.

This independence stays in query, particularly as we enter 2026, when a brand new Fed Chairman will take over.

“Gold and Bitcoin stay in a powerful appreciation pattern, and I don’t assume something as we speak adjustments that.“

Moreover, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has additionally warned that persistent inflation could forestall additional Fed fee cuts, contradicting market expectations for aggressive financial easing by means of 2025.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Tests Trendline Resistance at $115K-$116K

Looking on the Bitcoin/USDT 4-hour chart, BTC is presently buying and selling round $113,009 and seems to be testing a serious descending trendline that has acted as dynamic resistance because the earlier highs.

There’s a transparent resistance zone across the $120,000-$123,000 degree.

The chart exhibits Bitcoin trying to interrupt above this long-term bearish trendline, with current worth motion forming what seems to be a bullish flag or pennant sample after the earlier rally.

The ascending trendline from the lows offers help beneath, making a converging triangle formation that sometimes precedes important directional strikes.

Based on these technical indicators, Bitcoin seems poised for an upward breakout try.

If the value can get previous the descending trendline and clear the $115,000-$116,000 space with quantity, it could doubtless goal the resistance zone round $120,000-$123,000.

A profitable break above that degree may open the trail towards new all-time highs above $130,000.

However, failure to interrupt the descending trendline may lead to a retest of decrease help ranges round $107,000-$108,000, aligning with the earlier consolidation zone.

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