Is ‘Uptober’ back? Market fear craters as Bitcoin reclaims $114k

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has slipped to its lowest stage since March, elevating contemporary considerations over investor confidence even as Bitcoin and Ethereum try a restoration.

Data shared by CryptoQuant analyst JA Maarturn on Sept. 29 confirmed sentiment falling from a impartial 40 in August to an excessive fear stage of 28. The index final touched this vary in March, when Bitcoin traded round $80,000.

Meanwhile, the sharp deterioration in sentiment coincided with heavy sell-offs in main belongings. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum slipped beneath key psychological ranges of $110,000 and $4,000 last week, deepening the sense of uncertainty.

Yet the retreat proved short-lived. As of press time, Bitcoin price has recovered $114,000 and Ethereum traded over $4,100, suggesting that panic promoting has given method to a extra balanced market.

Market backside?

Asset supervisor Bitwise argued that the fear-driven backdrop might characterize a bottoming section.

It said:

“Last week, sentiment has twice reached ;excessive fear’ ranges on an intraday foundation, but bitcoin has proven relative resilience, holding round ~$108k – a stage that additionally aligns with the short-term holder value foundation – this seems to supply a robust assist for bitcoin proper now as sellers are more and more exhausted.”

The agency additional identified that Bitcoin was nonetheless up practically 3.7% in September regardless of final week’s turbulence. This is notable contemplating September is traditionally the weakest month of the yr for the highest crypto.

In distinction, the ultimate quarter usually delivers robust positive factors, with November repeatedly rating as Bitcoin’s most worthwhile month.

According to Bitwise, this historic sample makes present weak point look extra like a possibility than a warning signal.

Data from Glassnode helps the case, displaying that short-term holders at the moment are realizing internet losses, a situation that has traditionally marked reset factors earlier than renewed accumulation. Periods of capitulation, the place current consumers promote at a loss, have usually supplied the muse for longer-term rallies.

Bitcoin prepares for Uptober

Considering the flagship digital asset value resilience, crypto buying and selling agency QCP posited that BTC traders are optimistic of an “Uptober” rally.

According to the agency, gradual optimism has returned to the perpetual futures market, the place leveraged longs have re-entered after final week’s liquidations.

QCP said that Bitcoin open curiosity has risen from $42.8 billion to $43.6 billion. At the identical time, funding charges stay optimistic and positioning on platforms like Hyperliquid has swung decisively again towards the lengthy aspect.

However, the agency warned {that a} sustained uptrend will solely be confirmed if BTC clears the $115,000 threshold. It added:

“Options markets replicate this hesitation, with put skew and OI in BTC and ETH slowly normalizing as merchants rebuild conviction.”

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