What to expect from Solana in October 2025
Solana’s October efficiency has swung sharply in latest years. In 2020, SOL dropped 46.7%, however by 2021 it gained 43.1%. October 2022 noticed a small 1.65% decline, adopted by a powerful 80.1% rally in 2023 and a ten.6% improve in 2024.
With bearish strain on the broader market dampening sentiment, there are issues that SOL might shut October 2025 in the crimson.
Whales Retreat, Long-Term Holders Sell—SOL Faces Bearish October
SOL’s on-chain efficiency highlights rising weak point, which might push its value decrease over the approaching weeks. According to Glassnode, the coin’s Liveliness has soared to a year-to-date high of 0.78, reflecting the strengthening selloffs amongst SOL long-term holders.
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The Liveliness metric tracks the motion of long-held/dormant tokens by calculating the ratio of coin days destroyed to the overall coin days gathered. When it drops, it’s a bullish pattern, indicating that long-term holders are eradicating their property from exchanges.
Converesly, a rising Liveliness suggests extra dormant tokens are being moved or offered, signaling profit-taking by long-term holders.
This pattern means that bullish conviction amongst seasoned SOL traders is weakening, setting the stage for additional draw back in the approaching weeks.
In derivatives markets, exercise from massive traders has additionally slowed. On-chain information reveals their involvement in perpetual futures has declined, suggesting lowered confidence in SOL’s near-term trajectory.
According to Nansen, whale exercise in SOL perpetual futures has dropped sharply, with positions down over 800% over the previous 30 days.
This decline alerts a retreat by massive holders, who usually drive liquidity and directional momentum. With this capital exit from the SOL derivatives market, investor confidence appears to be weakening, a shift that would push SOL’s value additional downward in the approaching month.
Solana ETFs Near Approval?
Despite these pressures, there’s a catch. On Friday, a number of main asset managers — together with Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, Canary Capital, and VanEck — amended their S-1 filings for proposed Solana exchange-traded funds to present additional particulars on staking.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, these updates counsel “indicators of motion from issuers and the SEC,” confirming expectations that spot SOL ETFs with staking might be accepted throughout the subsequent few weeks.
If accepted and made tradable in October, these funds might present the catalyst SOL wants to reverse its present bearish tilt.
Solana’s Fate Hinges on ETF Approval
An uptick in institutional curiosity by means of ETF inflows would inject contemporary liquidity into the market, strengthen investor confidence, and drive a possible value rebound.
In this situation, the coin’s value might break above the resistance at $219.21 and rally towards $248.50.
On the opposite hand, if the present bearish pattern persists or the SEC delays its selections on these ETF functions, sentiment could worsen, pushing SOL additional down to $195.55. If this assist ground fails to maintain, SOL value might plunge additional to $171.88.
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