Spot XRP And Dogecoin ETF Approval Odds Hit 100%, Says Bloomberg Expert

Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says the percentages of spot ETFs for XRP and Dogecoin successful US approval at the moment are 100%, arguing that final week’s rule change to undertake generic itemizing requirements has rendered the outdated approval clock irrelevant and left solely registration statements awaiting a remaining sign-off from the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance.

“Honestly the percentages are actually 100% now. Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their ‘clock’ meaningless. That simply leaves the S-1s ready for formal inexperienced mild from Corp Finance,” he wrote, including that candidates for Solana ETFs have already filed one other spherical of amendments, an indication the method is in its remaining phases. “The child may come any day. Be prepared.”

Balchunas’ name follows a flurry of developments triggered by the SEC’s September 18 approval of “generic itemizing requirements” at NYSE Arca, Nasdaq and Cboe. That choice permits exchanges to listing sure commodity-based ETPs—together with crypto spot merchandise that meet the standards—with out submitting a separate rule change below Exchange Act Section 19(b).

In impact, the lengthy, deadline-driven 19b-4 course of that ruled coin-by-coin approvals is not required for qualifying merchandise; as an alternative, the remaining gating merchandise is the effectiveness of an issuer’s S-1 registration. The company framed the change as bringing commodity ETPs onto a extra streamlined path, whereas Commissioner Hester Peirce emphasised that, as soon as an ETP matches the usual, an alternate can listing it with out prior 19(b) approval.

What This Means For Spot XRP And Dogecoin ETFs

The near-term catalyst for XRP and DOGE particularly emerged from reporting by Eleanor Terrett, who mentioned the SEC has requested issuers of proposed spot ETFs for Litecoin, XRP, Solana, Cardano and Dogecoin to withdraw their pending 19b-4 filings as a result of these kinds are not wanted within the “post-GLS” regime.

“SCOOP: The SEC has requested issuers of LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 filings following the approval of the generic itemizing requirements, which change the necessity for these filings. Am instructed withdrawals may begin taking place as quickly as this week,” Terrett posted.

She later added, “More context for these asking whether or not withdrawal is a foul factor: the quick reply isn’t any… when the SEC authorised the generic itemizing requirements two weeks in the past, it eradicated the need for exchanges to file 19b-4 forms to listing particular person token ETFs, simplifying and rushing up the method.”

Balchunas endorsed that interpretation, calling Terrett’s report a “good scoop” and noting that analysts had anticipated this shift as soon as generic requirements had been finalized. “This was one thing we thought may occur. It is smart as you don’t want 19b-4s within the post-GLS world. Just unsure how the launch schedule will work but,” he wrote, suggesting timing is now primarily an issuer and Corp Fin coordination query quite than a statutory countdown.

Evidence that S-1s are certainly the remaining lever is seen on EDGAR. In current days multiple Solana spot ETF applicants, together with VanEck and 21Shares, submitted contemporary S-1/A amendments—VanEck’s docket exhibits an “Amendment No. 4” filed late final week, whereas 21Shares likewise posted Amendment No. 4—according to the end-game sharpening typical earlier than effectiveness. While these updates are for Solana, the identical submitting pathway would apply to any spot XRP or DOGE product below the brand new requirements.

However, none of this ensures instant launches or gives a definitive timetable. The operative query now shouldn’t be whether or not the SEC can approve such funds below its personal guidelines—it will probably—however when Corp Fin will declare the S-1s efficient and the way exchanges and issuers will choreograph first-day listings below the brand new regime.

At press time, XRP traded at $2.89.