U.S. Services PMI Sinks Near Pandemic Lows, Increasing Fed Rate Cuts Odds – Catalyst for $150K Bitcoin?
U.S. companies exercise unexpectedly slowed in September, pushing the ISM services PMI to 50 and reinforcing rising odds of near-term Fed price cuts.
This macro pivot may assist gasoline a brand new leg higher for Bitcoin and put a $150K goal again on the desk.
September’s ISM services report confirmed significant weak spot throughout the board, with the Business Activity index falling into contraction at 49.9, and New Orders weakened sharply, displaying that service-sector development is stalling.
*US SEPT. ISM SERVICES PMI FALLS TO 50 FROM 52; EST. 51.7
*US ISM SERVICES BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT 49.9, LOWEST SINCE 2020
*US SEPT. ISM SERVICES PRICES PAID INDEX RISES TO 69.4 VS 69.2
*US SEPT. ISM SERVICES NEW ORDERS INDEX FALLS TO 50.4 VS 56
— Bloomberg Breaking News (@Top_Bloomberg) October 3, 2025
Macro Context with PMI, Labor, and the Fed Could Trigger a Bitcoin $150k Rally
With U.S. labor market knowledge additionally weakening and Core PCE inflation still running at 2.9%, its first such degree in 30 years, the chances of Fed price cuts have jumped.
Markets now expect at least two cuts starting as quickly because the October FOMC assembly, with another doable earlier than the tip of 2025.
The macro backdrop has already helped Bitcoin rally to a 50-day high of $123,841, gaining over 11% in October’s so-called “Uptober” surge.
That change in expectations is a key bullish catalyst for threat property, together with Bitcoin.
Compounding the coverage image, the Fed’s balance sheet has contracted considerably from its pandemic-era peak, leaving it at its lowest degree since April 2020, after roughly $2.3T of runoff since 2022.
The transfer from quantitative tightening (QT) to a doable easing bias is a part of why analysts are debating a rotation again into risk-on positioning. Monetary easing and the prospect of simpler monetary situations traditionally raise threat property and speculative flows.
When macro liquidity and derivatives demand line up, value discovery can speed up shortly. Major banks and analysis desks have turned bullish on BTC’s upside on this atmosphere.
Standard Chartered recently said Bitcoin may attain $135K quickly and maybe hit $200K by year-end.
At the identical time, spot ETF demand, rising choices exercise tied to ETFs, and a rising share of long-term holders (those that’ve held because the ETF approvals) are shifting market construction away from pure short-term leverage towards extra sturdy demand.
Spot ETFs Post $1.08B in Volume as Bitcoin Open Interest Hits $45.3B
Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $1.08 billion in quantity during the last 4 days, displaying that institutional inflows stay sturdy.
At the identical time, Bitcoin Open Interest simply hit an all-time high of $45.3 billion, marking the biggest leverage buildup the market has ever seen.
On-chain data exhibits one other bullish shift, with the rising share of long-term holders who’ve saved their BTC for 18 months to 2 years.
Adding to the bullish narrative, there are reviews that President Trump is contemplating new stimulus checks of $1,000–$2,000 funded by tariff revenues.
JUST IN:
President Trump considers sending US taxpayers as much as $2,000 stimulus checks utilizing tariff income. pic.twitter.com/puadqg5tCx
— Remarks (@remarks) October 2, 2025
An analogous coverage in 2021 helped gasoline the final main bull run, when Bitcoin rallied from $17,572 to its then-record $69,000.
If confirmed, contemporary fiscal stimulus would add one other highly effective liquidity injection into markets already getting ready for Fed easing, probably accelerating Bitcoin’s trajectory towards $150K and past.
Bitcoin Technicals Flash Green With $120K Breakout and Highest Weekly Close Ever
Bitcoin’s construction now mirrors previous “value discovery” phases, with sturdy ETF inflows, file open curiosity, resilient spot demand, and aggressive futures shopping for.
Analysts argue BTC could also be getting into Price Discovery Uptrend 3, traditionally the stage the place mega bull runs take form.
As lengthy as Bitcoin holds above $120K and the Fed follows by with price cuts, the setup favors upside continuation.
Examining the weekly chart of Bitcoin, the technical image reveals clear indicators of power.
Price has efficiently held the 20-week transferring common as help, which has traditionally been one of the dependable ranges for sustaining long-term bullish tendencies.
The current transfer additionally noticed Bitcoin decisively break above the $112K downtrend resistance, a degree that had capped momentum for a number of weeks.
That breakout now units the stage for continuation greater.
What makes the present setup vital is that Bitcoin is on monitor for the highest weekly shut in its chart historical past, as the continuing weekly candle is already displaying a 7% acquire.
With these technical confirmations lining up, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $150K this quarter seems to be more and more reasonable.
The publish U.S. Services PMI Sinks Near Pandemic Lows, Increasing Fed Rate Cuts Odds – Catalyst for $150K Bitcoin? appeared first on Cryptonews.
