The Old Bitcoin Rules No Longer Apply, Arthur Hayes Warns

Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s broadly cited four-year halving cycle has damaged down and that macro liquidity—not protocol mechanics—will dictate the subsequent leg of the market. In a brand new essay titled “Long Live the King!” printed on October 9, 2025, the BitMEX co-founder contends that coverage selections in Washington and Beijing are organising a structurally simpler cash regime that ought to hold pushing BTC increased, whilst many merchants search for a textbook cycle peak. “The four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us,” he writes, however these making use of the previous sample “miss why it’ll fail this time.”

The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead

Hayes’ framework is express: the worth of cash and its amount are the dominant variables for threat belongings, and Bitcoin’s USD worth rises and falls with greenback liquidity. “Bitcoin within the present state of human civilization is the most effective type of cash ever created,” he says, but its greenback worth “will ebb and move ‌due to the worth and provide of {dollars}.” He extends the lens to China, arguing that the yuan credit score impulse has traditionally amplified or dampened crypto cycles alongside US conditions.

To make the case that halving-anchored timing is out of date, Hayes revisits 4 eras and hyperlinks every to turning factors in greenback and yuan liquidity. The “Genesis Cycle” (2009–2013) rode post-GFC quantitative easing and a surge in Chinese credit score till each decelerated into 2013, “popp[ing] the Bitcoin bubble.”

The “ICO Cycle” (2013–2017) was powered much less by {dollars} than by “a fuck ton of yuan sloshing across the world cash markets,” because the China credit score impulse spiked in 2015 amid a yuan devaluation, earlier than tightening and better U.S. charges ended the run. The “COVID Hoax” interval (2017–2021)—Hayes’ label for the pandemic-era coverage response—noticed “helicopter cash” below President Donald Trump and a fast doubling of greenback provide with charges pinned at zero, propelling all threat belongings, together with crypto, till inflation pressured tightening in late 2021.

In the present “New World Order” section (2021–?), Hayes argues that liquidity plumbing, not halvings, explains Bitcoin’s resilience. He highlights the US Treasury’s issuance tilt towards short-dated payments, which drained the Fed’s reverse repo facility and “unleashed ~$2.5 trillion of liquidity into the markets,” and he characterizes this as a political option to “run the financial system scorching.”

He hyperlinks the macro pivot on to at this time’s setup: “The Fed resumed slicing rates of interest in September although inflation is above its personal goal,” whereas the administration seeks to “decrease the price of housing” and loosen financial institution regulation to spur lending to “vital industries.” In Hayes’ studying, the coverage alerts are unambiguous: “cash shall be cheaper and extra plentiful.”

China, in his view, gained’t reprise the acute credit score surges of 2009 or 2015, but it surely additionally gained’t be a headwind. While Beijing grappled with deflationary stress and a property-sector reckoning, Hayes expects pragmatism to prevail: “When the financial stress proves too intense… Chinese policymakers print cash.” The upshot, he says, is that China could not drive world fiat creation, “but it surely gained’t hinder it both.”

The unifying thesis is that cycles have all the time been financial cycles carrying completely different masks. Bitcoin’s earlier peaks coincided with decelerating greenback and yuan liquidity; its newest advance displays a brand new alignment of political priorities with simpler cash, whatever the halving calendar.

Hayes places it bluntly: “Listen to our financial masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that cash shall be cheaper and extra plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this extremely possible future.” His closing line distills the declare to a coronation metaphor: “The king is useless, lengthy stay the king!”

At press time, BTC traded at $122,147.