Why October Could Be the Best Time to Exit Before the Bear Market Begins

October left a deep mark on the crypto market, recording the largest liquidation occasion in historical past. This month might additionally characterize the final alternative for buyers to exit at favorable costs earlier than the bear market begins.

Based on analyses from respected sources, the following evaluation highlights key on-chain and technical indicators buyers ought to think about when assessing dangers throughout this delicate section.

The Bull/Bear Market Indicator Flashes a Bearish Signal

The first signal comes from 10x Research’s Bull/Bear Market Indicator. According to their newest report, this indicator flashes a bearish sign in October.

The report emphasizes that Bitcoin’s momentum has stalled. On-chain and derivatives alerts that after fueled the rally are actually fading. Institutional buyers quietly tighten threat publicity, whereas retail merchants stay trapped close to breakeven ranges.

10x Research’s proprietary fashions counsel that the market is at a crucial turning level—both a pointy correction or a powerful restoration might comply with.

“We have maintained a tactically bearish stance, anticipating a possible pullback towards $100,000,” the agency stated.

Additionally, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator from CryptoQuant additionally reinforces this view. This mannequin tracks market cycles based mostly on on-chain knowledge. The 365-day transferring common (Bull-Bear 365 MA) has dropped shut to zero.

The indicator has now entered the “Bear” zone. If situations deteriorate additional, it might transfer into the “Extreme Bear” section as the Bull-Bear 365 MA slips beneath zero.

Historically, when this indicator and its 365 MA fall beneath zero, it signals the start of a prolonged bear market.

Another crucial issue comes from the four-year market cycle. While some analysts claim the four-year rhythm is lifeless, value knowledge nonetheless follows this established sample.

A earlier study by Alphractal, based mostly on the four-year cycle, consisting of accumulation, markup, distribution, and a one-year bear section, continues to show correct.

According to this mannequin, the cycle peak is predicted round October 2025, adopted by a possible backside in October 2026.

Finally, analyst Alejandro₿TC on X (previously Twitter) highlighted the significance of the month-to-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) trendline. He noticed {that a} bear market begins every time the RSI breaks its long-term upward trendline.

In the earlier cycle, RSI retested the trendline earlier than the main crash. In the present cycle, the similar habits simply occurred -RSI retested and exhibits indicators of weakening.

Alejandro₿TC advised this can be a peaceful alternative to exit earlier than a significant decline:

“Every time the month-to-month trendline broke, a bear market began. The excellent news: it all the time gave time to exit calmly earlier than the huge drop.” Alejandro₿TC said.

Multiple knowledge factors, together with on-chain indicators, market cycle fashions, and technical alerts, are aligning. They all counsel October could possibly be the best time to exit earlier than the bear market begins.

However, forecasts stay forecasts. Several elements might nonetheless help bullish momentum—corresponding to potential Fed rate cuts, capital rotation from gold to crypto, and powerful ETF and institutional accumulation.

While warning is warranted, the coming months could outline whether or not the market resets—or reignites.

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