Bitcoin Could Crash 50%, Pushing MSTR ‘Underwater,’ Legendary Trader Warns

Veteran chartist Peter Brandt ignited a recent technical debate on X after publishing two annotated charts—considered one of immediately’s Bitcoin every day bars, the opposite of Chicago Board of Trade soybeans from 1977—arguing that the cryptocurrency could also be carving out a broadening high akin to the historic commodity sample that preceded a 50% collapse.

“In 1977 Soybeans fashioned a broadening high after which declined 50% in worth,” Brandt wrote. “Bitcoin immediately is forming an identical sample. A 50% decline in $BTC will put MSTR underwater. Whether I’m proper or incorrect, it’s important to admit this previous man has the gonads to make large calls.”

What This Means For Bitcoin Price

Brandt’s side-by-side comparative overlay is central to his thesis. The soybean chart marks an “Ascending Megaphone” that resolved sharply decrease, whereas his present Bitcoin chart reveals an increasing vary bounded by rising higher and decrease trendlines with a highlighted “promote zone” close to the mid-range round $114,800. While the higher boundary sits simply above $125,000, the decrease trendline now tracks a descending band round $102,000–$100,000.

The BTC panel additionally consists of short-term transferring averages (8-period and 18-period) and a modestly elevated ADX studying, capturing a market that has been unstable inside a widening hall fairly than trending cleanly. On Brandt’s rendering, latest bounces have stalled beneath a horizontal resistance band, according to the “promote zone” annotation.

The put up triggered speedy pushback from sample specialists, most notably Francis Hunt (TheMarketSniper), who argued that the similarity is superficial as a result of the path of the megaphone issues. “If you will have #HVFmethod you’ll discover while the broadening structures look the identical. The Soybeans was an Ascending Megaphone on a bull pattern => Bearish. Bitcoin is a Descending construction on a bull pattern, finally => Bullish. Place a splitter between every for internet gradient.”

Brandt, who has a protracted document of public calls throughout FX, commodities, and crypto, framed his view as a dwell speculation fairly than a certainty, including an essential nuance a number of hours later: “I’m a Bayesian. I deal in prospects, not possibilities and definitely not certainties. At any given time I’ve binary TA and macro narratives enjoying in my head — $250k Bitcoin or $60k Bitcoin. I take into account all prospects and search for asymmetrical bets in both path.”

He additionally acknowledged the choice learn from Hunt: “I’ll be first to confess you could possibly be proper. I’m prepared to go together with it in both path. If BTC goes up I wish to be lengthy, if it goes down I wish to be quick.”

At the center of Brandt’s warning is second-order publicity: Strategy (MSTR), the business-intelligence agency that has gathered the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury, would, in his phrases, be “underwater” if BTC fell by half from present ranges. The agency’s common acquisition value is at the moment about $74,010 per BTC (inclusive of charges and bills), based mostly on the corporate’s newest disclosure this week placing whole holdings at 640,418 BTC for roughly $47.4 billion.

At press time, BTC traded at $107,998.