Bitcoin and S&P 500 Enter Late Bull Phase – Markets Stay Risk-On Ahead Of Q4 Earnings
Bitcoin continues to wrestle to interrupt decisively above the $110,000 mark following the October 10 market crash, as volatility and uncertainty dominate sentiment. The market now stands at a essential crossroads — one that would outline whether or not the subsequent section brings a deep correction or units the stage for an enormous restoration.
According to high analyst Axel Adler, each Bitcoin and the S&P 500 stay in what he calls the late bull section. The S&P 500’s 52-week return at present sits at +13%, reflecting that world markets stay in a risk-on setting, with buyers nonetheless prepared to take publicity to growth-oriented belongings. Adler notes that the BTC–S&P correlation at present stands at 0.26, which means Bitcoin tends to maneuver in the identical course as equities, although not fully in lockstep.
This reasonable correlation means that whereas macro components like earnings and financial coverage nonetheless affect Bitcoin, its inner dynamics — akin to liquidity shifts and derivatives positioning — stay key. However, Adler warns that the S&P 500’s sensitivity to macro and political narratives may rapidly spill over into the crypto market. Any cooling in equities or broader risk sentiment may stress Bitcoin and outline its subsequent main transfer.
Bitcoin Mirrors Late-Cycle Market Behavior as Q4 Earnings Take Center Stage
According to Axel Adler, the ultimate quarter of 2025 marks an important transition level for each conventional and crypto markets. After almost two years of regular yield progress and tight financial coverage, the macro focus is shifting from expectations to actual company efficiency. The Q3 earnings season is now in full swing, and early outcomes have been surprisingly robust — out of 58 firms which have reported to this point, all have overwhelmed estimates by a median of 571 foundation factors (bps). Moreover, anticipated earnings progress for the quarter has climbed from 7% to eight%, reinforcing the concept that markets are nonetheless within the closing section of a bull cycle.
This late-cycle habits sometimes displays investor optimism, whilst underlying dangers — akin to stretched valuations, declining liquidity, and macro uncertainty — start to floor. Adler notes that such situations typically coincide with high volatility throughout threat belongings, together with Bitcoin, which tends to trace broader shifts in investor sentiment.
For crypto markets, this context is especially related. Bitcoin’s muted response to robust earnings knowledge means that institutional flows stay cautious, ready for affirmation of macro stability earlier than re-entering threat positions. Historically, when fairness markets strategy the height of their bull cycle, Bitcoin can both decouple and surge amid renewed liquidity or observe equities downward throughout a correction section.
Adler concludes that the present setup aligns with a late-bull, pre-cooling setting — a second outlined by robust short-term optimism however fragile long-term stability. The coming weeks, pushed by the remaining earnings stories and central financial institution commentary, will decide whether or not this momentum fuels one other Bitcoin rally or marks the start of a broader market cooldown.
Bulls Defend Key Support, Market Awaits Breakout Confirmation
Bitcoin is at present buying and selling round $109,300, exhibiting modest restoration momentum after discovering help close to the 100-day transferring common (inexperienced line). The 3-day chart reveals that BTC stays in a consolidation construction, oscillating between $106,000 and $117,500, the latter appearing as a major resistance stage since mid-September.
The $117,500 zone continues to mark the higher boundary of the present vary, aligning with the earlier high-volume node from the August–September interval. This stage represents the Point of Control for the latest buying and selling construction and is essential for outlining short-term course. A profitable breakout above it might possible set off momentum towards $123,000, the place giant liquidity clusters and brief liquidations are positioned.
On the draw back, the 50-day transferring common (blue line) sits close to $111,000, overlapping with the mid-range stage, whereas the 200-day transferring common (pink line) close to $90,000 stays a longer-term help base.
Bitcoin’s development stays neutral-to-bullish, however confidence is fragile. A powerful shut above $111,000–$112,000 may sign renewed energy, whereas a rejection right here would possible verify prolonged consolidation or perhaps a deeper correction towards $105,000. The subsequent few classes will decide whether or not BTC can regain momentum or face renewed promoting stress.
Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
