HBAR’s ETF Buzz Could Be a Late Bloomer As Price Pullback Sets Up The Next Rally
Hedera’s native token, HBAR, slipped about 4.5% within the 24 hours following the launch of the Canary Capital spot HBAR ETF on October 28. The HBAR worth drop seemed like a typical sell-the-news response with merchants locking in earnings after final week’s 18% rally.
Still, the ETF’s broader impact may be delayed. While short-term merchants exited early, technical and on-chain information present that the HBAR worth pullback might be laying the inspiration for an additional upward transfer. The ETF buzz may show to be a late bloomer, with its strongest impression felt as soon as short-term profit-taking clears out.
Head-and-Shoulders Breakout Holds Despite Cooling Momentum
On October 26, HBAR confirmed an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, a sample that usually marks the beginning of a new upward section. From the breakout candle shut, HBAR climbed exactly to its projected goal close to $0.219 earlier than easing again.
That retrace doesn’t invalidate the setup. The formation stays legitimate so long as HBAR holds above $0.161, which serves as the best shoulder base.
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The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) helps this construction. This indicator measures massive investor inflows and outflows. It stayed above zero whilst costs corrected, exhibiting that huge consumers took benefit of decrease costs to enter, including contemporary assist to the bottom.
The solely concern is that CMF has made a barely decrease low, that means inflows are regular however slowing. So whereas the HBAR worth rally nonetheless seems to be wholesome, quick pullbacks might proceed as new entrants take in promoting strain.
This renewed pullback-led participation, triggered after the ETF buzz, may show very important for sustaining the subsequent section of the rally.
Liquidation Map Points to a Possible Short Squeeze
The derivatives market additionally displays this short-term uncertainty across the ETF narrative. Many merchants appear to consider the “ETF buzz” has pale after the correction, resulting in a heavy buildup of quick positions.
A liquidation map, which reveals the place leveraged merchants is likely to be pressured to shut positions, highlights this imbalance. On Bybit, quick positions outweigh longs by greater than 2-to-1, with round 20.49 million USDT in brief publicity in comparison with 9.68 million USDT in longs.
The shorts begin getting liquidated round $0.198. If HBAR rises above that mark, it may set off a wave of automated buy-backs from quick merchants, a quick squeeze, quickly driving costs larger. Per the chart, many of the shorts would get worn out if the HBAR worth breaches the $0.219 mark.
This setup, mixed with renewed shopping for after the ETF pullback, indicators that the post-ETF weak point might be the setup section earlier than the subsequent leg of the HBAR price rally.
Signs Point to Renewed Strength within the HBAR Price Uptrend
On the 4-hour chart, HBAR’s price structure stays robust. The token trades above key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). These indicators easy the worth information to indicate the general route of the development. The 20 EMA is nearing a crossover above the 200 EMA, whereas the 50 EMA is closing in on the 100 EMA, each early indicators that momentum is returning.
If and when this “Golden” crossover (s) occurs, the HBAR worth will most likely rise. Even the smallest surge would begin liquidating the shorts, triggering the squeeze setup. That may have a optimistic cascading impact on the worth motion.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures shopping for versus promoting momentum, flashed a hidden bullish divergence between October 27 and 28. During that interval, worth made a larger low whereas RSI made a decrease low, confirming that the underlying development nonetheless factors upside.
HBAR now holds assist close to $0.197. If consumers defend it, the subsequent upside targets lie at $0.205, $0.219 (final rejection stage), and $0.233. However, a fall under $0.190 may weaken the construction and expose $0.173, doubtlessly invalidating the short-term view.
However, the inverse head-and-shoulders chart shared earlier reveals that full development invalidation happens provided that the HBAR worth dips under $0.161.
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