Zcash’s 400% October Run Shows Signs of Exhaustion — Is a Pullback Next?
Zcash (ZEC) has turned heads with a close to 400% surge in October and a 44.2% soar this week. Even the previous 24 hours added one other 6.6%, exhibiting robust shopping for strain. But whereas the Zcash value retains climbing, indicators of exhaustion are surfacing.
Momentum indicators now level to a pullback danger, at the same time as Zcash stays inside a bullish construction.
Pullback Risks Grow as Price Outpaces Momentum
Between October 11 and October 29, Zcash’s value stored making larger highs, whereas the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made decrease highs. RSI is a momentum indicator that measures shopping for versus promoting energy. When costs rise whereas the RSI falls, it indicators bearish divergence — indicating that momentum isn’t confirming the transfer.
This divergence has come amid Zcash’s 400% month-on-month rally, suggesting that the surge itself is now driving RSI danger. In different phrases, value has moved too far, too quick, and RSI hasn’t adopted. That imbalance normally hints at a cooldown.
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Note: While this sort of bearish divergence on the day by day chart typically indicators a pattern reversal, ZEC’s near-term historical past reveals commendable value energy. That energy may restrict the pullback danger, if and when the Zcash value corrects.
Notably, Zcash remains to be driving its flag-breakout momentum, and the broader rally seems intact.
At the identical time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which tracks how a lot huge cash is flowing in or out — has been trending down since the previous few periods. It’s now hovering close to zero, that means massive buyers could also be reserving earnings as an alternative of including publicity.
For Zcash to regain momentum, CMF should flip larger, and RSI ought to rise previous 75. RSI transferring above 75 alongside rising costs will put momentum and value in sync, at the very least within the brief time period. And that might invalidate the pullback bias.
Long Liquidations Add to the Pullback Risk
ZEC’s liquidation map from Bybit alone reveals how closely the market is tilted towards lengthy positions. Over $20.8 million in lengthy leverage is presently stacked in opposition to solely $10.7 million in shorts. This means most merchants are nonetheless betting on upside.
Such positioning raises the lengthy squeeze danger — a sharp transfer down that forces overleveraged longs to shut positions, pushing costs even decrease. Even a small drop might set off this, particularly with Zcash’s volatility historical past.
The largest liquidation clusters sit between $308 and $295, making them high-risk zones if promoting strain builds. Given that the ZEC price responds to derivatives, the value pullback danger stays until leverage cools.
Bullish Zcash Price Structure Holds, But Not Without Risks
Despite these short-term warning indicators, Zcash’s technical structure remains bullish. On the 12-hour chart, ZEC trades inside an ascending channel, a sample that normally results in upward breakouts.
The higher trendline, although, is weak — with solely two touchpoints, that means a transfer above it could possibly be explosive if bulls retake management. The key stage to observe is $365, which has rejected each advance since October 27.
If ZEC breaks above it, $382 and $400 grow to be instant targets, with $400 appearing as a robust psychological barrier. A detailed above $400 might open the door to $456 and even $548, based mostly on Fibonacci extensions.
On the draw back, $308 stays important help. A sustained fall under it might ship ZEC towards $267 or $226, turning the present sample from bullish to corrective.
The break underneath $308 would additionally set off lengthy liquidations, as talked about earlier. That might even break the bullish channel construction and push the Zcash value in direction of $267 or decrease.
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