Old Bitcoin Supply Remains Calm: ASOL Shows No Panic Selling
Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to carry the $110,000 assist stage as worth strain intensifies heading into the ultimate days of the month. Market construction stays fragile following current volatility, and several other analysts warn that BTC might nonetheless retest decrease demand zones earlier than establishing a stronger base. With liquidity pockets sitting under present worth and sellers exhibiting persistence close to resistance, short-term draw back can’t be dominated out as merchants reassess positioning after the Federal Reserve’s coverage shift.
However, not all alerts level to weak point. Many buyers stay optimistic as macroeconomic circumstances start favoring danger belongings as soon as once more. The Fed’s current 25bps charge lower and affirmation that quantitative tightening will finish by December 1st have laid the groundwork for what some view because the early section of a brand new liquidity cycle — traditionally constructive for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
On-chain information additionally helps a calmer market atmosphere. Over the previous month, the exercise of outdated cash has remained average, with long-term holders exhibiting no indicators of panic promoting. This habits suggests conviction amongst seasoned market individuals, whilst BTC navigates short-term turbulence. Collectively, these dynamics body a market in transition: tactically cautious, but strategically positioned for potential upside.
Low ASOL Activity Signals Strong Holder Conviction
According to on-chain insights highlighted by prime analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s current spending habits amongst long-term holders stays remarkably steady, underscoring robust market conviction whilst worth struggles to carry above key assist. Adler factors to the Average Spent Output Lifespan (ASOL) — a metric that measures the typical age of cash being moved on-chain — noting that whereas there have been short-lived upticks to 245 days on October 8 and 209 days on October 21, these alerts have been far weaker than the heavy long-term holder exercise seen in spring and June.
This distinction is essential: throughout these earlier intervals, older cash shifting signaled significant distribution occasions, usually previous corrective phases. In distinction, the current delicate will increase point out no widespread need amongst long-term holders to exit positions. The 30-day ASOL shifting common presently sits close to 111 days, which Adler characterizes as a structural baseline — a zone according to wholesome consolidation reasonably than distribution.
In sensible phrases, this implies seasoned holders stay affected person, exhibiting no urgency to take income, regardless of macro uncertainty and short-term volatility. At the identical time, incoming liquidity continues to soak up provide, as referenced on this week’s Substack commentary. This absorption dynamic is essential: it displays a market the place accessible Bitcoin is steadily tightening, enabling worth stability whilst speculative flows stay constrained.
Collectively, these on-chain circumstances counsel a foundational section reasonably than exhaustion. As liquidity improves and macro headwinds ease, this quiet conviction amongst long-term holders might kind the groundwork for the following vital leg increased — as soon as demand meaningfully re-accelerates. For now, the market stays calm beneath the floor, a posture traditionally related to accumulation phases and future enlargement reasonably than broader distribution or capitulation.
Bitcoin Holds Above $110K But Faces Rejections Below Resistance
Bitcoin (BTC) is buying and selling close to $110,100, making an attempt to stabilize after one other sharp rejection from the $117,500 resistance space — a stage that has constantly capped upside makes an attempt since mid-August. The 12-hour chart exhibits a repeat sample: every transfer towards the higher vary fades close to the cluster of shifting averages, with sellers stepping in aggressively at resistance and forcing BTC again into its mid-range assist zone.
BTC is presently holding above a key demand band between $108,500 and $110,000, an space that beforehand acted as a pivot throughout late-September and early-October worth motion. Maintaining this zone is important for bulls. A breakdown right here would expose Bitcoin to the $104,000–$106,000 area, the place worth depraved through the October 10 liquidation flush.
On the upside, a structural shift requires BTC to reclaim the 50- and 100-period shifting averages on the 12h timeframe and set up a foothold above $114,500. Only then would momentum construct for an additional check of $117,500, with a confirmed breakout opening a path towards $120,000–$123,000.
For now, Bitcoin stays range-bound, caught between macro optimism and lingering provide strain. With volatility compressing once more, the following robust transfer is prone to come as soon as the market digests current coverage shifts and liquidity flows start redirecting decisively.
Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
