QCP Highlights Volatility At Key $100K Level, Recovery Hinges On Stabilizing ETF Flows
Singapore-based digital asset agency QCP Capital launched a latest market report, highlighting that Bitcoin led a worldwide risk-off motion, dropping to check the $100,000 assist stage.
The decline was influenced by a stronger US greenback and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve coverage, which dampened threat urge for food throughout monetary markets. This stress was mirrored in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which noticed roughly $1.3 billion in internet outflows over 4 consecutive periods, reversing one of many 12 months’s strongest supportive developments.
The weakening spot demand coincided with compelled deleveraging, together with over $1 billion in lengthy liquidations at intraday lows, briefly pushing Bitcoin beneath key assist earlier than consumers intervened. Options market positioning added to volatility, as sellers with internet quick gamma round $100,000 strikes elevated hedging exercise. The $100,000 stage now serves as a essential psychological barrier, and any stabilization in ETF flows may shortly enhance sentiment, offered no new macroeconomic shocks come up.
US Economy Shows Moderate Growth Despite Government Shutdown, Supporting Positive Macro Outlook
The broader macro setting stays constructive however is clouded by the continued US government shutdown. With official October payroll information delayed, market contributors depend on private-sector indicators to evaluate momentum. Recent revisions confirmed Q2 GDP at 3.8% and a slowdown in payroll development to roughly 29,000 per 30 days, reflecting sturdy productiveness. The Q3 GDPNow estimate of 4.0% SAAR, supported by regular ISM and consumption information, suggests the financial system continues to develop at a average tempo.
Policy path stays unsure. The Federal Reserve’s 25 foundation level price minimize in October, regardless of some dissents, was paired with cautious steerage, tempering expectations of one other minimize in December. Markets presently assign roughly 60–65% odds to a follow-up transfer, however extended uncertainty might lead policymakers to pause, maintaining the greenback sturdy and credit score situations tight. A sustained Bitcoin rally will possible rely upon reversing ETF outflows and renewed confidence in broader threat belongings.
At current, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $102,668, reflecting a decline of roughly 1.36% over the previous 24 hours, with an intraday high of $104,670 and a low of $99,008. The complete international cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.4 trillion, down 1.14% over the identical interval. Meanwhile, the 24-hour buying and selling quantity throughout the cryptocurrency market has reached $281.7 billion, representing a 22.31% enhance.
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