XRP ETF Hype vs. Shutdown Risk: How Far Price Can Run Before “Sell the News”
XRP’s highlight is rising as a number of spot ETF filings — by Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, Canary Capital, CoinShares, and extra— seem on the DTCC platform. Among them, Canary’s submitting stands out, with its November 13 window drawing the most focus. This piece appears to be like at how far the XRP value may go if these spot ETFs achieve approval.
Or how sentiment may shift if the US authorities shutdown ends early and brings new SEC feedback that delay the first launch.
Whales and Holders Trim Exposure Ahead of Decision
Whales holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP have began adjusting positions as the ETF window nears.
On November 9, this cohort managed 8.38 billion XRP, price about $20.8 billion at present costs. By November 10, their holdings slipped to eight.37 billion XRP, a drop of roughly 10 million XRP, or $25 million in worth.
The change might look small, however it indicators decreased conviction amongst prime holders. Their habits usually leads broader sentiment — and this pullback exhibits delicate hesitation regardless of the buzz round potential ETF auto-approval.
The Hodler Net Position Change metric, which tracks holdings from long-term buyers, provides to that warning. Between November 2–3, HODLers offloaded about 102.5 million XRP. By November 10, the determine widened to 135.8 million XRP, a 32% enhance in each day outflows. It means holders are steadily taking revenue whereas the market rallies, not including to power.
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So, why the hesitation from whales? The reply lies in timing. If the shutdown continues, Canary’s submitting may go auto-effective with out SEC evaluation — but when the authorities reopens early, SEC workers may situation new feedback that push approval again.
That regulatory uncertainty may be making even assured merchants defensive.
However, Canary isn’t the solely issuer eradicating the delaying modification. Franklin Templeton additionally filed an up to date S-1 on November 4, stripping out the identical clause that lets the SEC management timing. Initially, Franklin’s XRP ETF approval date was on November 14.
That submitting triggered the computerized 20-day effectiveness window, which means Franklin’s spot XRP ETF may additionally attain approval round November 24 if the Commission doesn’t intervene.
Rex Osprey Precedent and the Leverage Tilt
The final key XRP ETF moment — Rex Osprey’s XRPR launch on September 18 — set a transparent sample. Prices rallied almost 18% earlier than the occasion, then corrected sharply after it went dwell, as merchants bought into the hype.
Now, XRP has rallied about 25% since November 3, echoing that very same pre-launch run. Derivative merchants look like repeating historical past. Bybit’s liquidation map exhibits how publicity is stacking: round $117.66 million in lengthy positions versus $72.33 million in shorts.
In easy phrases, the market is closely tilted towards longs. The chart tracks the place leveraged merchants may very well be liquidated — and the information exhibits potential clusters between $2.44 and $2.19. If costs fall into that zone, lengthy positions may unwind quick, triggering an extended squeeze and amplifying losses.
This is the identical setup probably seen proper earlier than the Rex Osprey correction. Heavy lengthy bias, stretched optimism, and whales quietly taking revenue. The parallel means that if the Canary ETF goes dwell throughout an identical sentiment section, a “sell-the-news” response stays doable earlier than any sustained breakout.
XRP Price Action: How Far Can It Go?
XRP trades close to $2.48, sitting near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from its current swing. The construction stays a falling wedge, a sometimes bullish formation — however momentum will solely flip decisively optimistic if value breaks above $2.88.
- Upside: A confirmed shut above $2.88 may open the path to $3.34, matching the resistance from August.
- Neutral zone: Between $2.46–$2.70, value may transfer sideways as ETF hypothesis fades into macro uncertainty.
- Downside: Losing $2.31 dangers an extended squeeze towards $2.06, the wedge’s decrease boundary. This line solely has two clear touchpoints, making it extra weak to massive dips.
The wedge stays inherently bullish, however conviction will solely return if XRP reclaims $2.88 with actual shopping for quantity. If the shutdown lasts and Canary’s ETF goes by way of mechanically, that breakout may observe shortly.
But if the SEC re-engages early, new feedback may delay the launch — possible triggering one other short-term sell-the-news drop earlier than any true rally develops.
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