Morgan Stanley Warns Bitcoin Entering “Fall Season,” Urges Investors to Take Profits
Morgan Stanley strategists have cautioned that Bitcoin could also be coming into the “fall season” of its four-year market cycle, a section that sometimes precedes an prolonged downturn.
Key Takeaways:
- Morgan Stanley warns Bitcoin has entered its “fall season,” advising traders to take income earlier than a possible crypto winter.
- Bitcoin’s drop beneath its 365-day shifting common and stalled liquidity inflows sign weakening market momentum.
- Despite near-term warning, institutional curiosity in Bitcoin stays sturdy.
The financial institution’s wealth administration crew is advising traders to take income whereas costs stay elevated, warning {that a} potential “crypto winter” might observe.
Morgan Stanley Strategist Says Bitcoin Entering ‘Fall Season,’ Time to Take Profits
Speaking on the Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast, Denny Galindo, funding strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, mentioned Bitcoin’s historic efficiency follows a repeating “three-up, one-down” sample.
“We are within the fall season proper now,” Galindo defined. “Fall is the time for harvest — it’s whenever you need to take your beneficial properties. The query is how lengthy this fall will final and when the subsequent winter will begin.”
The feedback come as Bitcoin’s worth momentum softens.
On Nov. 5, Bitcoin fell beneath $99,000, breaking underneath its 365-day shifting common, a key technical help stage utilized by merchants to gauge long-term sentiment.
CryptoQuant’s head of analysis Julio Moreno famous that the drop signaled a shift in market tone, whereas Bitrue analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima referred to as it “a affirmation of a technical bear market.”
Adding to the cautious sentiment, crypto market maker Wintermute mentioned market liquidity has stalled, with inflows from stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and digital asset treasuries plateauing.
The agency famous that these three elements have been the first drivers of crypto market depth since early 2025, however latest months have proven declining exercise.
Despite near-term headwinds, institutional curiosity in Bitcoin continues to develop.
Michael Cyprys, head of US brokers, asset managers, and exchanges at Morgan Stanley Research, mentioned that enormous traders more and more view Bitcoin as “digital gold,” a possible hedge towards inflation and foreign money debasement.
“Some institutional traders view Bitcoin as a macro hedge,” Cyprys mentioned, including that ETFs have made entry simpler.
However, he famous that institutional allocations transfer slowly due to regulatory processes and long-term mandates.
According to SoSoValue information, US spot Bitcoin ETFs now maintain greater than $137 billion in complete belongings, with Ether ETFs accounting for an extra $22.4 billion.
Analysts say this rising institutional publicity might mood volatility even because the market enters its cyclical slowdown.
Bitcoin Stuck Between $106K–$116K as Long-Term Holders Dump and Volatility Fades
Bitcoin’s typical November rally looks increasingly unlikely this year, because the market faces persistent promoting stress from long-term holders and fading institutional demand.
The asset has been locked in a slim vary between $106,000 and $116,000 for 2 weeks following October’s sharp sell-off, signaling investor hesitation and a broader consolidation section.
Bitfinex’s newest market report reveals that long-term holders have ramped up distribution to 104,000 BTC per 30 days, essentially the most aggressive promoting since mid-July.
Analysts warn that until ETF inflows or new spot demand choose up, Bitcoin might stay range-bound, with draw back danger towards $106,000 and even $100,000.
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