Bitcoin Tests Critical Support as Bearish Momentum Deepens and Long-Term Holders Unload 815K BTC: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin’s momentum has weakened sharply, and the market has slipped into considered one of its most bearish phases of the 12 months, in line with the newest CryptoQuant weekly report.
Sentiment has deteriorated rapidly as Bitcoin hovers dangerously near the $100,000 degree. The shift started after the October 10 “Big Liquidation” occasion, which drained upward momentum and pushed a number of key indicators into bearish territory.
Spot demand contracted earlier in October, whereas progress in stablecoin liquidity — a vital driver of market inflows — slowed considerably. Together, these components have created a fragile setting wherein Bitcoin’s value struggles to maintain significant assist.
A Market Losing Its Grip on Momentum
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index displays the extent of the downturn. Earlier in October, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,000, the index stood at a strongly optimistic studying of 80. That optimism evaporated rapidly as Bitcoin slipped under $100,000 for the primary time since June.
The index has now fallen to twenty, indicating an especially bearish setting. The steep decline reveals how rapidly the market has shifted from aggressive shopping for to hesitation and warning, with fewer new inflows and weaker spot demand contributing to the downward stress.
Long-Term Holders Unload at Rare Levels
One of essentially the most regarding indicators within the report is the behaviour of long-term holders. Over the previous month, they’ve offered roughly 815,000 BTC, marking their heaviest distribution since January 2024. This promoting occurred as Bitcoin pushed into the $118,000 to $121,000 vary, a second when spot demand had already begun to fade.
In earlier phases of the cycle, sturdy demand from ETFs, institutional merchants and retail patrons was adequate to soak up heavy promoting from long-term holders. That buffer is now absent. Instead, the mixture of regular provide from long-term holders and weakening demand is putting clear downward stress available on the market, elevating the chance of additional value deterioration.
Profit-Taking Stays Strong, however Capitulation Is Absent
Profit realization stays elevated. On November 7, traders locked in roughly $3 billion in internet earnings, mirroring the aggressive promoting seen all through October. Despite the heavy profit-taking, the market has but to indicate indicators of capitulation.
Realized losses stay extraordinarily low, suggesting that holders usually are not panic-selling even as value assist weakens. This dynamic — sturdy earnings however minimal losses — signifies that the market has not shaped a backside. Historically, value flooring emerge solely after losses rise and weak palms exit the market, a sample that has not but appeared.
The Battle on the 365-Day Moving Average
Bitcoin’s present battle centres on the 365-day shifting common, which sits close to $102,000. This line has served as the final word assist degree all through the present bull cycle and was one of many final main indicators to show bearish in the course of the 2021–2022 transition into a protracted downturn.
Bitcoin has now dipped under this degree a number of instances — a warning signal not seen earlier on this cycle. If the worth continues to shut beneath the 365-day common, the chance of a deeper correction grows significantly.
CryptoQuant notes that the subsequent areas of significant assist lie considerably decrease, suggesting that failure to reclaim this shifting common may speed up a broader market decline.
Bitcoin now stands at a vital juncture. With momentum fading, long-term holders promoting closely, and spot demand failing to maintain tempo, the market’s potential to stabilize relies upon closely on whether or not Bitcoin can reclaim its 365-day shifting common. The coming weeks could decide whether or not it is a non permanent pullback or the beginning of a extra vital correction.
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