Coinbase Just Triggered A Major Crypto Turning Point, Bitwise Warns

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says crypto could have simply crossed into a brand new structural period—and he argues that Coinbase is the catalyst. In a November 11 memo titled “The Next Big Disruption From Crypto,” Hougan writes that he “caught a glimpse of the long run this week,” figuring out a fourth main crypto-driven disruption: capital formation.

Hougan frames the event inside his long-running meta thesis that crypto is “going to reinvent the elemental elements of finance.” He highlights Bitcoin as “reinventing gold,” stablecoins as “reinventing {dollars},” and tokenization as “reinventing buying and selling and settlement.” He stresses that crypto stays early in every cycle however says the endgame is already seen: “I count on that ultimately most property will likely be tokenized, most {dollars} will transfer on stablecoin rails, and bitcoin will likely be as widely accepted as gold.”

What modified this week, he argues, is the emergence of a viable, institutionalized ICO mannequin. “We added a fourth class: capital formation,” Hougan writes. “I believe it will likely be a defining theme of crypto in 2026.”

To make that case, Hougan revisits the normal IPO market—one he describes as “sclerotic and closely skewed in opposition to particular person traders.” Institutions fund VCs, VCs fund the perfect startups, startups keep personal for years, and retail is left with scraps on the finish. “Retail solely will get to take part on the finish of the journey,” he writes, in a system weighed down by “seemingly infinite rules.”

A Crypto Plot Twist: Coinbase Revives ICOs

Crypto tried to interrupt this sample as soon as earlier than. “It was—let’s be trustworthy right here—a whole catastrophe,” he says concerning the 2017–2018 ICO boom. “The overwhelming majority of ICOs turned out to be scams.” With no guardrails, “charlatans raised billions from the unsuspecting public,” ultimately forcing the SEC to intervene. “Its huge crackdown in 2018 destroyed the ICO pattern and drove crypto right into a deep bear market.”

But Hougan insists the failure masked an underlying reality. “As dangerous as ICOs have been, they did show one thing attention-grabbing: Crypto might be used to boost capital quickly for brand new tasks.” ICOs confirmed a mannequin that was “lower-cost, sooner, and extra egalitarian” than IPOs, even when the execution was fatally flawed.

The distinction at the moment, he argues, is regulatory intent and institutional structure. Hougan highlights SEC Chairman Paul Atkins—previously co-chair of the Token Alliance and a board member at Securitize—as a driving pressure behind new considering. In July, Atkins known as for “new rules and secure harbors that might enable high-quality ICOs to occur.” According to Hougan, Atkins argued that “if we are able to repair what went unsuitable with ICOs 1.0, we might see a growth in new capital formation—all led by crypto.”

That is the backdrop for Coinbase’s transfer. “On Monday, Coinbase took the primary main step towards making this a actuality,” Hougan writes. Coinbase unveiled a brand new platform that can launch one “fully-vetted” token sale monthly, with enforced crew disclosures, obligatory lockups for insiders, and a standardized screening course of.
“In quick,” Hougan says, “by self-regulation, it goals to repair loads of what was unsuitable with the 2017-2018 ICO period.”

He is specific about the place he thinks this goes: “I guess we’ll see a half-dozen or extra billion-dollar ICOs by platforms like Coinbase in 2026.” While nonetheless small relative to the normal IPO market—“176 IPOs within the US raised $33 billion in 2024”—Hougan argues that even a handful of profitable ICOs would show a structural level: “Entrepreneurs can increase capital immediately from traders, typically at higher phrases than they’d within the conventional IPO market.”

On the funding facet, Hougan factors first to Coinbase itself. “The apparent funding is in Coinbase,” he writes, describing the corporate not simply as a brokerage however a multi-lane monetary infrastructure large: “It’s not simply the Charles Schwab of Crypto; it’s Charles Schwab + Goldman Sachs + NYSE + …”

He additionally sees upside for base-layer ecosystems: “A wholesome ICO market will bode effectively for the most important programmable blockchains, like Ethereum and Solana.”

Yet the bigger thesis is index-level. “An ICO renaissance,” he writes, “is one other main proof level for crypto as an entire.” Crypto’s narrative grew stronger as stablecoins and tokenization matured; billions raised by vetted ICOs would strengthen it additional. His recommendation: “Don’t attempt to decide the horse; guess on the race.”

At press time, the full crypto market cap stood at $3.42 trillion.