Is Crypto in a Bear Market Now? A Full Market Structure Assessment
Bitcoin has dropped under $100,000 for the second time in a week, shedding 12% in a month. The total crypto market has misplaced over $700 billion in the previous month, because the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to ‘excessive worry’.
So, do all of those market indicators sign a bear market? Let’s analyze the technical and historic knowledge.
Sentiment Signals Are at Bear-Market Levels
The Fear & Greed Index at 10 displays excessive worry similar to early 2022 and June 2022, each confirmed bear-market phases.
- Yesterday: 16
- Last week: 20
- Last month: 28
The pattern reveals accelerating fear, not stabilizing sentiment. Bear runs normally start with this sort of persistent worry compression.
However, sentiment alone doesn’t affirm a bear market — it solely indicators capitulation or exhaustion.
Bitcoin Has Broken Its Most Important Bull-Market Support
The 365-day shifting common is the long-term structural pivot.
Current state of affairs:
- The 365-day MA is close to $102,000.
- Bitcoin is buying and selling under it.
- The breakdown mirrors December 2021, when value misplaced the identical MA and the bear market began.
Historically:
| Cycle | MA Lost? | Outcome |
| 2018 | Yes | Full bear market |
| 2021 | Yes | Full bear market |
| 2025 | Yes (now) | Bear-phase danger rising |
Failing to reclaim this stage rapidly typically confirms a cycle regime shift. This is likely one of the strongest technical arguments for a bear-market transition.
On-Chain Cost Basis Shows Early Capitulation, Not Distribution Top
The 6–12 month UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) realized value now sits round $94,600. Bitcoin value at present stands barely above this stage.
This issues as a result of:
- These holders purchased throughout the ETF rally.
- They characterize “bull-cycle conviction patrons.”
- When their place enters loss, market construction weakens.
In 2021, Bitcoin price falling below this cohort’s cost basis was one of many closing indicators earlier than the prolonged downtrend. This is the primary time that cost-basis stress has reappeared since 2022.
This helps the thought of a mid-cycle break, not but a full macro bear pattern.
RSI Shows Oversold Conditions, Typical of Mid-Cycle Crashes
Market-wide RSI readings:
- Average crypto RSI: 43.09
- BTC RSI is among the many lowest in massive caps
- Only 2.5% of property are overbought
- Most are in oversold territory
This resembles May–July 2021, August 2023, and August 2024. Each was a mid-cycle correction, not an end-of-cycle bear. When RSI stays deeply oversold for weeks, bearish momentum confirms.
Right now, RSI reveals stress however not but pattern reversal.
MACD Shows Strong Divergence Across the Market
The common normalized MACD is at present 0.02. This signifies weak bullish momentum returning. Also, 58% of the market property have constructive momentum.
Bitcoin, nevertheless, sits deep in the destructive zone whereas altcoins are blended.
When BTC has destructive MACD however the market nonetheless has 50%+ constructive momentum, the market is in a transition part moderately than a full bear pattern.
In full bear markets, 90%+ of property present destructive MACD concurrently. Right now, that’s not the case.
So, Is This a Bear Market?
The crypto market shouldn’t be in a confirmed bear market — it’s in a mid-cycle breakdown with a rising chance of turning into a bear market if two circumstances are met.
These are the three circumstances that may affirm a bear run:
- Bitcoin stays under the 365-day MA for 4–6 weeks. This triggered each bear market in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
- Long-term holders proceed heavy distribution. If LTH (long-term holder) promoting exceeds 1M BTC over 60 days, the cycle high is in.
- MACD flips absolutely destructive throughout the complete market. We are usually not there but.
Overall, crypto shouldn’t be but in a bear market, however the present breakdown places the market in a high-risk zone the place a bear market may kind if Bitcoin fails to reclaim long-term assist quickly.
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