ASTER Breakout Confirmed, But Price Flashes Warning
The ASTER value is up over 8% as we speak and about 12% up to now week. The token has lastly damaged out of a falling wedge, which is generally a bullish sample.
But even with as we speak’s sharp soar, some warning indicators are forming. Two momentum divergences and a heavy lengthy buildup on the liquidation map present that the subsequent transfer is probably not a straight continuation. The query now could be whether or not ASTER can lengthen the breakout or if a pullback hits first.
Momentum Shows Strength, But Divergences Are Appearing
The first concern comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI measures shopping for strain and signifies whether or not the transfer has underlying power. Between November 2 and November 16, ASTER’s value made a decrease high whereas RSI made a better high. That is a hidden bearish divergence. It seems that when shopping for strain rises, the worth fails to observe. It normally warns of a pullback.
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The Money Flow Index (MFI), which tracks dip shopping for by combining value and quantity, is flashing the identical downside. Between November 11 and November 16, the worth fashioned a better low, however MFI fashioned a decrease low. This means dip shopping for is getting weaker.
Both divergences level to the identical message. Buyers pushed ASTER high enough to interrupt the wedge, however they didn’t push strongly sufficient to substantiate a rally. A each day candle shut above $1.28 is the one degree that clears each divergences and confirms actual power.
Long Heavy Positioning Raises Pullback Risk
The greater threat comes from leverage. On Binance’s ASTER-USDT liquidation map, lengthy liquidation leverage is $25.86 million. Short liquidation leverage is just $6.06 million.
So longs are greater than 4 instances bigger than shorts. This setup means the transfer is constructed on aggressive lengthy positioning. If the ASTER value even dips modestly, these longs are in danger. When lengthy liquidations hearth, the worth normally drops quicker as a result of compelled promoting accelerates the transfer.
This pairs straight with the divergences. If momentum weakens and the worth pulls again, the Aster value may face a deeper slide as a result of the lengthy facet is overloaded. That is the core threat hidden underneath as we speak’s breakout.
ASTER Price Needs $1.28 To Confirm Strength
The ASTER price chart exhibits the identical stress. ASTER broke the falling wedge as we speak. But the breakout solely turns into dependable above $1.28. That is the important thing degree at which the construction transitions from an unstable breakout to a particular pattern change.
If the divergences play out and the pullback begins, the primary degree ASTER must defend is $1.09. Holding that degree retains the drop restricted to a easy correction.
Losing $1.09 opens the best way towards $0.99, which can be the place most long-liquidation clusters sit on the Binance map. A transfer into that zone would probably speed up the drop as a result of the long-side leverage is heavy.
If ASTER closes above $1.28 as a substitute, the divergences get invalidated and the trail opens towards $1.59. That is the subsequent main degree the chart factors to.
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