Bitcoin Bear Market: Confirmed Or False Alarm? Experts Sound Off

Bitcoin’s drop again into the mid-$90,000s has reignited the talk: is that this the beginning of a real bear market, or a pointy reset inside an ongoing uptrend? Analysts are converging on the identical battleground ranges however differ on what they suggest.

Has The Bitcoin Bear Market Arrived?

Macro swing-trader “The Great Mattsby” (@matthughes13) argues that, structurally, Bitcoin continues to be monitoring a well-known sample. He reminds followers that: “Back in 2024, BTC consolidated for 7 months within the $70k-$50k zone earlier than breaking out.”

Using month-to-month Fibonacci retracements from the March 2024 high to the November 2022 low, he notes that Bitcoin beforehand tagged the 0.618 retracement at $51,518, “even depraved under, then bounced.” On a recent set of fibs drawn from the October 2025 prime to the August 2024 low, that very same key degree now sits at $96,975. Price is at present buying and selling barely under it, just like the 2024 wick.

With two weeks left in November, Mattsby stresses that the shut issues greater than the intramonth volatility: “If BTC holds this $96-$97k zone for a month-to-month candle shut in November, this might mirror final yr’s setup: a pair extra months retesting this zone, then a run to new all-time highs can be attainable.”

On the weekly timeframe, nonetheless, market analyst Rekt Capital is much less comfy with the most recent breakdown. For him, the 50-week exponential shifting common has been a core “bullish construction” of this cycle. He writes: “Bear Markets verify when the bullish constructions that supported continued bullish momentum begin to fail.”

His chart shows the present weekly candle pushing decisively under the 50-week EMA, which has beforehand acted as help. He sees “a high likelihood the Weekly Candle Closes under the 50-week EMA,” including that the response within the coming weeks shall be “macro trend-defining.”

The key query, in his view: “Can BTC produce sufficient upside within the coming weeks to invalidate this Weekly Close under the 50 EMA and reclaim the EMA as help?”

What Bitcoin On-Chain Data Says

On-chain knowledge sends a special sign. Analyst Frank (@FrankAFetter) shared Checkonchain’s Short-Term Holder MVRV chart, which tracks the profitability of latest patrons relative to their price foundation with standard-deviation bands. Bitcoin’s newest flush has pushed the metric to the decrease, negative-one-standard-deviation band, a zone beforehand tagged close to $49,000 and $74,000 earlier than significant bounces.

Frank’s strategy is easy: “I’m a purchaser of ordinary deviation strikes to the draw back; they don’t come typically, however they are usually wonderful alternatives.”

Is The CryptoQuant CEO Right Again?

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju focuses on who’s promoting this dip. He characterizes the transfer as inside rotation amongst long-term gamers reasonably than broad distribution: “This dip is simply long-term holders rotating amongst themselves. Old Bitcoiners are promoting to tradfi gamers, who may even maintain for the long term.”

He recollects that his earlier prime name was driven by “OG whales … dumping arduous,” however argues that the panorama has shifted: “ETFs, MSTR, and different new channels stored injecting recent liquidity. Onchain inflows are nonetheless robust. This dip is mainly OG whales dragging the market.”

Looking forward, he factors to “sovereign funds, pension funds, multi-asset funds, and company treasuries” as constructing even bigger, persistent liquidity channels and concludes: “The cycle principle is useless till these liquidity channels cease working.” Notably, Ki Young Ju appropriately predicted in March this yr that Bitcoin might see a “6–12 months of bearish or sideways worth motion.”

In quick, the technical image has clearly weakened, with the 50-week EMA and the $96,000–$97,000 month-to-month Fibonacci zone now appearing as vital traces within the sand. If Bitcoin can reclaim the weekly EMA and safe a month-to-month shut above that 0.618 retracement, the case for this being a deep however customary consolidation stays credible.

A sustained failure at these ranges, in contrast, would lend vital weight to the bear-market argument. For now, the decision hinges on how the following few weekly and month-to-month candles shut, not on the intraday noise.

At press time, BTC traded at $93,938.