Where Is the Bottom? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Hits 21-Day Negative Streak

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained damaging for 21 consecutive days, the longest streak in the present cycle. Data from Coinglass exhibits the index has stayed beneath zero since early November, mirroring Bitcoin’s drop from close to $120,000 to round $84,000.

This damaging premium signifies ongoing promoting strain on US-based exchanges, reflecting US institutional investor sentiment. Analysts counsel the market might not discover a clear bottom till this development reverses.

Understanding the Coinbase Premium Index

The Coinbase Premium Index tracks the share distinction between Bitcoin costs on Coinbase, a number one US change buying and selling in USD, and Binance, the place numerous retail merchants primarily commerce in USDT. When the premium is optimistic, it highlights stronger US investor demand and institutional shopping for. In distinction, a damaging studying displays promoting strain or diminished US demand versus world markets.

The present 21-day damaging streak marks an unprecedented stretch. Usually, the index fluctuates between optimistic and damaging territory. The Coinglass chart exhibits persistent crimson bars, indicating sustained damaging readings throughout this cycle. This extended interval of negativity has mirrored Bitcoin’s price weakness. BTC surpassed $120,000 earlier than sliding right down to $84,500 as of November 24, 2025.

Institutional Sentiment and Persistent Selling Pressure

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju emphasized that US institutional sentiment stays subdued. CryptoQuant information exhibits the hourly Coinbase premium at -0.06, highlighting continued warning from bigger home gamers. The corresponding chart illustrates a pointy current decline after prior sideways motion.

Meanwhile, analyst Giannis stated that the current decline is primarily resulting from aggressive institutional selling on Coinbase reasonably than retail panic. He famous that world patrons haven’t been capable of take up the promoting strain, stopping Bitcoin from forming a base. Historically, reversals are inclined to observe a return of the premium to impartial or optimistic, suggesting continued draw back danger for now.

Open curiosity information reinforces this dynamic, rising from beneath 20,000 contracts in late October to about 70,000 by mid-November. Rising open curiosity alongside falling costs sometimes factors to rising quick positions and bearish market sentiment. These developments underscore issues about sustained promoting strain.

Weekend Effects and Mean Reversion Patterns

Not all analysts see the damaging premium as totally bearish. Market observer CryptoCondom noted that weekends usually drive imply reversion in the Coinbase premium. When ETF exercise and US-based sellers pause over the weekend, the premium regularly strikes nearer to zero, supporting some worth stability or small positive factors.

This recurring weekend sample has appeared in current weeks, with shaded areas on charts indicating premium rises and worth upticks. The distinction between “weekend pumps” and “weekday dumps” highlights the influence of buying and selling flows on Bitcoin’s short-term volatility. However, the broad weekday development stays damaging, as institutional exercise intensifies promoting strain.

These weekend results spotlight the affect of US establishments on Bitcoin’s construction. When they pause, world demand presents transient aid. However, when establishments re-enter the market in the week, promoting resumes, usually overwhelming world patrons and perpetuating the downward development.

Market Outlook and Bottom Formation

The ongoing damaging Coinbase premium alerts that Bitcoin has but to kind a sustainable backside. Historically, development reversals are inclined to happen after the premium recovers, indicating shifting institutional habits. Until that occurs, rebounds could also be muted or shortly reversed by renewed promoting from the US.

Market members face a difficult situation. Current situations resemble previous capitulation phases, however the persistent damaging premium suggests promoting has not but exhausted itself. Traders should resolve if these costs sign long-term accumulation or are merely pauses in a extra prolonged downtrend.

A impartial or optimistic flip for Coinbase Premium would sign a turning level, indicating the finish of institutional promoting and renewed demand. Until then, warning is more likely to dominate Bitcoin buying and selling methods.

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