Bitcoin Downtrend Driven by Early Whale Selling, Says Ki Young Ju
Bitcoin’s sharp correction from $110,000 to round $80,000 is linked to heavy promoting by early whales with price bases close to $16,000. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju notes that on-chain metrics point out Bitcoin is now within the “shoulder” section of its cycle, suggesting restricted short-term upside potential.
This promoting is overwhelming institutional demand from ETFs and MicroStrategy, shaping the cryptocurrency’s 2025 outlook. In an interview with Upbit’s Upbitcare, Ju supplies a data-driven have a look at the shifting panorama for Bitcoin buyers and the forces affecting its present market construction.
Early Bitcoin Whales Fuel Selling Pressure
Ki Young Ju explains that at this time’s market is formed by a contest between two essential whale teams. Legacy whales, holding Bitcoin with a mean price foundation close to $16,000, have begun to understand hefty earnings, promoting at a price measured in lots of of thousands and thousands of USD every day. This persistent promoting has exerted intense downward stress on Bitcoin’s price.
At the identical time, institutional whales by way of spot Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy have amassed vital positions. Yet, their shopping for energy has not matched the size of early whales’ sell-offs. According to Ju, wallets holding over 10,000 BTC for greater than 155 days usually have a mean price foundation of round $38,000. Binance merchants entered positions round $50,000, so many market contributors are in revenue and might promote if wanted.
The CryptoQuant CEO factors out that spot ETF and MicroStrategy inflows had boosted the market earlier in 2025. However, these flows have now declined. Outflows have began to dominate the market panorama. For instance, information from Farside Investors confirmed Bitcoin ETFs recorded $42.8 million in internet inflows on November 26, 2025, lifting cumulative inflows to $62.68 billion. Despite these figures, the sustained promoting from early whales outweighs institutional accumulation.
Market Cycle Analysis Signals Limited Upside
On-chain profit-and-loss metrics provide essential insights into market cycles. Ju’s evaluation utilizing the PnL index with a 365-day transferring common reveals that the market has entered a “shoulder” section. This late-cycle standing signifies constrained development potential and elevated threat of a correction.
The valuation multiplier displays a neutral-to-flat outlook. In earlier cycles, every new greenback drove amplified market-cap development. Now, that multiplier impact has light. This suggests market leverage is much less environment friendly, and the construction doesn’t assist vital positive aspects.
Ju doesn’t count on a dramatic 70-80% crash. Still, he considers corrections as much as 30% cheap. A drop from $100,000 might imply Bitcoin falling to about $70,000. He makes use of information from OKX futures long-short ratios, change leverage ratios, and buy-sell flow patterns to assist this view.
Ju underscores the significance of a data-driven strategy. In a recent post, he urged merchants to make use of metrics for conviction, not hypothesis. His focus stays on deciphering on-chain information, change exercise, and market construction.
This complete evaluation supplies a grounded evaluation primarily based on on-chain proof. As early Bitcoin whales proceed to promote at earnings, establishments face a harsh local weather. With high leverage ratios, impartial valuation multipliers, and a late-cycle stance, the market has restricted potential for a significant rally within the close to future.
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