Zcash (ZEC) Nears Its Last Bullish Support After a 21% Crash — Will the Uptrend Survive?
Zcash is down about 21% in the previous 24 hours and has now prolonged its seven-day loss to virtually 33%. The month-to-month development has additionally flipped detrimental. Even then, the broader three-month Zcash worth acquire nonetheless sits above 780%, which reveals how sturdy the earlier rally was.
Right now, Zcash is buying and selling inside a bullish sample that has guided each main transfer since September. The worth has simply touched the decrease development line of this channel. This is the final sturdy assist that retains the long-term uptrend alive. Two inside metrics trace that the promoting strain could also be fading, however ZEC should shield that vital line for any restoration.
Momentum Weakens, however Pressure May Be Easing
The first clue comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI measures momentum on a 0–100 scale. Between September 27 and December 1, the worth fashioned a greater low, whereas RSI fashioned a decrease low. This is hidden bullish divergence and sometimes seems close to exhaustion factors.
RSI is now near the oversold zone. The final time RSI got here this low — round August 19 — ZEC started a new leg up soon after.
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The second clue comes from CMF (Chaikin Money Flow), which tracks whether or not big-money flows are getting into or exiting the market.
CMF had been falling since November 6, the similar interval when the worth corrected sharply. CMF slipped under zero on November 24 for the first time since late October, and that drop aligned with heavier promoting. But CMF has now curled up and is heading again towards the zero line.
That issues as a result of CMF can also be displaying a small divergence. Between November 27 and December 1, the worth made a decrease high whereas CMF made a greater high. When CMF is popping up whereas the worth falls, it suggests massive consumers could also be making ready to re-enter. If CMF breaks above zero and strikes previous the descending development line drawn throughout latest decrease highs, ZEC could see momentum shift back in its favor.
Both indicators solely matter if the decrease channel assist of the channel continues to carry.
Correlation Shift and Key Zcash Price Levels That Decide the Trend
Zcash’s earlier rally was helped by its weak or barely detrimental correlation with Bitcoin. Over the previous 12 months, the BTC–ZEC correlation sits close to –0.05. This helped ZEC outperform throughout Bitcoin weak spot.
But in the previous seven days, the correlation has turned mildly optimistic at 0.48. It continues to be weaker than most main cash, which means ZEC can nonetheless transfer in another way, however it additionally means Bitcoin’s drop has pulled ZEC down more durable in the brief time period.
Because of this shift, the worth ranges now matter much more:
ZEC is sitting simply above $348, the decrease boundary of the ascending channel. A each day shut under $348 breaks the development line and opens a transfer towards $309. If $309 fails, the subsequent main assist sits at $230, the place consumers beforehand stepped in strongly.
A dip beneath $230 may expose new lows, which even crypto pioneer Max Keiser believes:
For the Zcash price to regain power, it should reclaim $592, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci stage. That transfer would require a rebound of about 63.9% from present ranges — massive, however common for ZEC given its previous swings.
If CMF retains turning up and the long-term detrimental BTC correlation performs out, Zcash may nonetheless shield the channel and prolong the broader uptrend. But dropping $348 flips the total construction and ends the bullish case at the very least for now.
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