HTX Research, the devoted analysis arm of main international crypto alternate HTX, has launched its newest report, Prediction Markets: From Structural Bottlenecks to Infrastructure Revolution and the Future of Attention Assets, providing a structured evaluation of the foundations, growth trajectory, and long-term potential of prediction markets. The examine discusses why prediction markets proceed to confront structural limitations regardless of speedy development, and whether or not they might in the end change into the pricing infrastructure for attention-based belongings.

Prediction Markets as Emerging Attention Economy: A Clear Contrast with Memecoins

Prediction markets have grown quickly. In the first ten months of 2025, international buying and selling quantity reached $27.9 billion, a 210% enhance from 2024. Like Memecoins, prediction markets appeal to a high focus of small-cap contributors. However, the two function on basically completely different mechanisms.

In prediction markets, contributors can distribute small quantities throughout a number of occasions, with clear odds and clear draw back. Event buildings enable knowledgeable customers to convert area data into measurable returns—significantly in lower-liquidity markets the place info gaps create alternatives.

Memecoin buying and selling follows a distinct sample. On Pump.enjoyable, 10,417 tokens are created every day, 98.6% of that are recognized as manipulative and sometimes final lower than three months. Prices transfer primarily on social momentum slightly than likelihood. Information asymmetry closely favors token creators, leaving peculiar customers dependent on hype cycles slightly than knowledgeable perception.

Although prediction markets additionally unfold via social channels, their traction comes from evolving occasion dynamics, not emotional spikes. For most contributors, prediction markets operate as information-based competitions, whereas Memecoins resemble attention-driven lotteries.

Rapid Growth with Underlying Structural Fragility

Despite rising participation, prediction markets stay structurally fragile. Liquidity on many platforms remains to be incentive-dependent; some beforehand spent greater than $50,000 per day on market-making subsidies, with depth shrinking as soon as incentives declined. Losing outcomes settling to zero makes it troublesome for markets to accumulate lasting depth, and as occasions close to decision, knowledgeable merchants more and more seize favorable pricing—elevating losses for market makers.

Other structural limitations persist: binary codecs supply restricted expressiveness; discovery is weak in skinny markets; permissionless occasion creation is constrained; and oracle settlement processes face delays or manipulation dangers. These challenges point out that prediction markets are nonetheless in the early phases of their infrastructural growth.

Structural Innovation Signals the Next Phase

To handle these constraints, new system designs are rising. Just-in-time liquidity injects capital solely when wanted, bettering effectivity. Continuous combinatorial markets scale back fragmentation by permitting views to be expressed throughout a steady vary slightly than via remoted binaries.

New prediction buildings—together with perpetual contracts constructed on prediction-market information and rapid-settlement binary codecs—broaden expressive capability past conventional designs. Distribution can also be evolving: probability-path charts match naturally into social feeds, and new platforms more and more embed buying and selling flows into social networks, reworking prediction markets into “monetary codecs” that flow into via consideration channels.

These improvements don’t clear up all structural challenges instantly, however they mark a shift towards extra scalable architectures.

The Rise of Attention-Based Finance

HTX Research factors out that spotlight belongings have gotten the third main asset class, following money move belongings and supply-demand belongings. Representative tokens inside the class embrace BAT, KAITO, and extra. According to HTX information, BAT rose by over 30% over the final 30 days, and KAITO was as soon as a market hit in H1 2025. 

Besides these tasks, HTX Research means that prediction markets have the potential to change into core pricing infrastructure for consideration belongings. Existing user-generated consideration belongings, akin to NFTs or creator tokens, begin from zero and can’t seize established cultural relevance. Prediction markets, against this, generate time-based costs and liquidity alerts that may be aggregated into an consideration index reflecting real-world visibility.

Such an index provides a number of benefits: makes an attempt to manipulate it require actual capital; current consideration may be represented with out starting from zero; and contributors can take lengthy or brief positions on consideration shifts. As this framework matures, prediction markets might evolve from instruments for forecasting outcomes into infrastructure succesful of measuring and pricing cultural relevance—supporting devices akin to Attention Perpetuals.

Conclusion

Prediction markets are transitioning from speedy development to structural refinement. While challenges persist, innovation throughout liquidity, expressiveness, and distribution is reshaping market design. As attention-based belongings change into extra clearly outlined, prediction markets might more and more function the connective layer between cultural and monetary worth.

Compared with the sentiment-driven volatility of Memecoins, prediction markets supply information-driven, probability-based participation. As their structure matures, their position in the digital asset ecosystem is probably going to broaden considerably.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the devoted analysis arm of HTX Group, accountable for conducting in-depth analyses, producing complete studies, and delivering skilled evaluations throughout a broad spectrum of subjects, together with cryptocurrency, blockchain know-how, and rising market developments. Committed to offering data-driven insights and strategic foresight, HTX Research performs a pivotal position in shaping trade views and supporting knowledgeable decision-making inside the digital asset area. Through rigorous analysis methodologies and cutting-edge analytics, HTX Research stays at the forefront of innovation, driving thought management and fostering a deeper understanding of evolving market dynamics. Visit website.

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