2025 was officially a wipeout year for US spot Bitcoin ETFs – now flat YoY and down $48B since October
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs gave again practically all of their 2025 positive aspects after hitting a cycle high in early October, with complete web property sliding to $120.68 billion as of Dec. 4, down $48.86 billion from the Oct. 6 peak.
The drawdown leaves the class basically flat year-over-year, sitting simply $30 million beneath the $120.71 billion recorded on Dec. 16, 2024, emphasizing a “wipeout” year wherein large price-driven swings did not translate into sustained web progress for the ETF advanced.
The year-to-date circulate image diverged from the asset determine.
2025 web creations totaled $22.32 billion by means of Dec. 4, but the October-to-December value drawdown in bitcoin lower fund property again to the place they have been a year in the past.
Since Oct. 6, cumulative web outflows totaled $2.49 billion, a small share of the $48.86 billion in AUM decline, with the residual transfer attributable to cost and unrealized revenue and loss.
That combine frames a year wherein issuance demand continued, whereas BTC’s late-year retracement erased the asset’s positive aspects recorded into early October.
Second-quarter creations reached $12.80 billion, and third-quarter creations added $8.79 billion, whereas fourth-quarter creations turned marginally detrimental by means of Dec. 4 at $0.20 billion in web redemptions.
The newest 30-day window confirmed $4.31 billion of net outflows, indicating that This fall cooled after a robust center a part of the year.
Even after the fourth-quarter slowdown, cumulative web inflows since launch stood at $57.56 billion, stressing that the structural base of issued shares stays above the extent implied by value alone.
The hole between precise AUM and a flow-only counterfactual since Oct. 6 illustrates the dynamic. Starting from the $169.54 billion peak and mechanically including solely each day creations and redemptions yields a path that will have saved property close to that start line, whereas the noticed line fell with BTC’s drawdown.
The distinction between these two paths, proven within the “AUM vs flow-only” evaluation, quantifies the worth or PnL element that drove the decline.
By the identical logic, evaluating right this moment’s AUM to the Dec. 16, 2024 anchor with cumulative 2025 inflows isolates the previous year’s attribution, the place optimistic flows have been offset by detrimental value marks, leaving property close to flat.
Investors centered on fund well being will parse the unfold between flows and efficiency to evaluate resilience, liquidity, and potential provide overhang within the main market.
The optimistic 2025 flows imply approved contributors created shares web throughout the year, so the product set didn’t endure broad redemption strain till late within the year. Price, not redemptions, explains a lot of the AUM reset from the October high.
That issues for secondary market circumstances as a result of persistent outflows would level to completely different supplier steadiness sheet hundreds and secondary spreads than a price-led transfer with secure share counts.
The “nothingburger” year-over-year comparability is particular to the chosen dates, which middle on the newest legitimate row within the dataset and the prior mid-December reference.
As of Dec. 4, complete property got here in solely $30 million beneath the Dec. 16, 2024, studying, a rounding-level change for a product suite that scaled above $120 billion. The interpretation, for readers monitoring structural adoption through creations, is that a flat YoY AUM print doesn’t indicate negligible demand.
It displays that the fourth-quarter price decline countered earlier inflows. The datasets and charts included, spanning complete AUM, each day flows, and cumulative inflows since launch, align with this decomposition.
The intra-quarter shift is seen within the each day collection. Through the spring and summer season, creations clustered on robust value days, then waned into the autumn. After Oct. 6, redemptions elevated, and the 30-day web circulate turned detrimental in early December.
The magnitude remained modest relative to the full, at $2.49 billion in web outflows over the interval, reinforcing the mechanical level that the AUM slide since the height was primarily a perform of mark-to-market.
Below are the core figures referenced for readability.
| Metric | Value | Date / Period |
|---|---|---|
| Total AUM | $120.68B | Dec. 4, 2025 |
| AUM peak | $169.54B | Oct. 6, 2025 |
| Change since peak | −$48.86B (−28.82%) | Oct. 6 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| YoY AUM | $120.71B → $120.68B | Dec. 16, 2024 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| 2025 YTD web flows | +$22.32B | Through Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Flows since Oct. 6 | −$2.49B | Oct. 6 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Cumulative web inflows since launch | +$57.56B | Through Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Latest 30-day web flows | −$4.31B | Through Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Quarterly flows | Q1 +$0.93B, Q2 +$12.80B, Q3 +$8.79B, This fall so far −$0.20B | 2025 |
For context and reproducibility, AUM corresponds to complete web property in USD, and flows correspond to the each day complete BTC influx.
The easy attribution of the AUM change from Oct. 6 to Dec. 4 equals web flows over the interval plus a value or PnL time period. Using that decomposition, the $48.86 billion decline approximates to $2.49 billion of web outflows and about $46.37 billion of value or PnL.
The complete AUM chart exhibits the October crest and the next fade into December, the each day flows chart exhibits Q2 and Q3 energy with This fall softness, and the cumulative web inflows chart confirms that creations stay optimistic since launch.
As framed, the headline takeaway is that 2025 introduced optimistic issuance, whereas the October retracement in BTC capped the year with property close to final December’s degree and nicely beneath the early October peak.
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