FOMC Week Playbook: Bitcoin Has Followed the Same Pattern Twice—Will History Repeat?
Bitcoin began the week trying to reclaim the $92,000 degree, a transfer that hints at early indicators of restoration after weeks of volatility and uncertainty. This renewed energy arrives at a essential second for international markets, as traders flip their consideration to 1 occasion: the upcoming FOMC assembly. According to a brand new CryptoQuant report by XWIN Research Japan, the central query is whether or not the Federal Reserve will lastly start chopping rates of interest—a call that would reshape market expectations heading into 2026.
Historical knowledge offers an necessary context. During the final two rate-cut bulletins on September 17 and October 29, Bitcoin adopted a strikingly comparable sample. Prices climbed in the days main as much as every assembly, reflecting optimism and hypothesis.
Immediately after the bulletins, the market skilled a quick bounce, solely to fall sharply quickly after. This behavior highlights a standard response in macro-driven markets: though fee cuts are normally seen as bullish, they usually gas a “purchase the rumor, promote the information” dynamic in the brief time period as merchants lock in earnings.
With Bitcoin hovering beneath main resistance and macro uncertainty rising once more, the coming days could decide whether or not this tried restoration evolves into momentum—or fades into one other corrective swing.
Market Positioning Meets Macro Reality
Rather than merely repeating previous rate-cut reactions, the present setup requires inserting Bitcoin’s conduct in the broader macroeconomic panorama—a panorama that appears very totally different from earlier cycles. While XWIN Research highlights the historic “up first, down later” sample round FOMC cuts, the actual story lies in how immediately’s liquidity situations work together with on-chain alerts.
Stablecoin trade reserves now replicate not simply crypto sentiment however the macro backdrop. With the US nearing the finish of quantitative tightening and international liquidity subtly bettering, rising stablecoin reserves would verify that traders are getting ready to deploy capital into danger belongings.
If reserves stay flat or decline, it might point out hesitation tied to uncertainty over inflation persistence or considerations about coverage missteps.
Funding charges, in the meantime, should be interpreted by means of the lens of a market recalibrating after a 36% correction whereas nonetheless working in a high-rate setting. Excessive lengthy leverage throughout a macro turning level—particularly if the Fed cuts sooner than anticipated—creates the good setup for volatility spikes.
Neutral or mildly optimistic funding, nonetheless, would recommend merchants should not overextended, permitting Bitcoin to soak up macro information extra easily.
Ultimately, Bitcoin’s response to the FOMC will depend upon the interaction between bettering macro liquidity situations and the inside positioning of the market. This cycle’s setting is extra advanced—and doubtlessly extra supportive—than prior rate-cut occasions, making risk-managed positioning extra essential than prediction.
Weekly Chart Shows Stabilization But Trend Still Vulnerable
Bitcoin’s weekly chart exhibits the market trying to stabilize after a pointy multi-week correction, with value hovering round $91,800. The present candle is printing a modest rebound, signaling that consumers are stepping in close to the inexperienced 100-week shifting common, a degree that has acted as a cyclical help zone in previous downturns. This response means that long-term contributors are defending the construction, whilst momentum stays weak.
Despite the bounce, BTC continues to commerce effectively beneath the 50-week shifting common, which has curled downward—proof that medium-term pattern stress nonetheless leans bearish. The breakdown from the $110K–$100K area triggered a decisive shift in sentiment, and the newest consolidation below $95K displays a market nonetheless trying to find course somewhat than forming a transparent restoration pattern.
Volume additionally tells an necessary story: promoting spikes in current weeks have been met with noticeably softer buy-side quantity, indicating that bulls are current however not but aggressive. Until a sustained surge in demand seems, rallies close to the 50-week MA are more likely to face resistance.
If Bitcoin holds the 100-week MA and varieties greater weekly lows, a restoration section may construct. Failure to keep up this zone, nonetheless, would expose deeper draw back ranges and ensure a broader pattern reversal.
Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com