Standard Chartered Sounds Alarm: A Major Bitcoin Buyer Has Disappeared
Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term Bitcoin (BTC) value forecasts, warning {that a} key pillar of latest demand, company Bitcoin shopping for, is probably going over.
The financial institution now believes future positive aspects in Bitcoin will probably be pushed by a single supply: exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, a shift that would gradual the tempo of upside within the years forward.
Bitcoin’s Pullback ‘Painful however Normal’
In a brand new notice, Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick, mentioned the financial institution is pushing again its timeline for Bitcoin reaching $500,000 and lowering its year-end price targets for 2026 by way of 2029.
“While the latest Bitcoin value decline has been fast, we predict it’s inside anticipated bounds. However, additional company shopping for of Bitcoin is unlikely, as valuations not help it. This leaves ETF shopping for, which can be slower than earlier anticipated, to drive value positive aspects from right here. We decrease our year-end value forecasts for 2026-29 and push out our $500,000 forecast to 2030. Not a crypto winter, only a chilly breeze,” Kendrick mentioned.
Bitcoin’s recent price action has unsettled buyers, however Standard Chartered argues the sell-off matches historic patterns quite than signalling a structural downturn.
Kendrick famous that Bitcoin has fallen round 36% from its all-time high on October 6, a decline akin to different drawdowns seen for the reason that launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“The latest value motion in Bitcoin (BTC) has been difficult, however the decline, whereas fast, falls inside ‘regular’ expectations,” Kendrick said, including that comparable pullbacks have occurred over the previous two years.
The timing of the height has fuelled renewed fears of a crypto winter, with Bitcoin topping roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, a sample seen in previous cycles.
“The timing of the latest losses, the 6 October high was reached 18 months after the April 2024 ‘halving’ of Bitcoin provide, has fed the narrative of a ‘crypto winter’,” Kendrick added.
However, Standard Chartered rejects the idea that the standard halving-driven cycle still dominates Bitcoin’s value behaviour.
“We don’t share the view that the halving cycle remains to be legitimate. Rather, we predict longer-term ETF patrons are a way more essential value driver,” he famous.
Corporate Bitcoin Buying Losing Steam
The extra regarding sign, in keeping with Standard Chartered, is the obvious finish of aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by listed digital asset treasury corporations (DATs).
Kendrick mentioned valuations not justify additional growth by these corporations, which have performed an more and more seen position in driving demand over the previous 12 months.
“That mentioned, value motion has pressured us to recalibrate our Bitcoin value forecasts. Specifically, we predict shopping for by Bitcoin digital asset treasury corporations (DATs) is probably going over, as valuations, as measured by mNAVs, the generally used valuation metric for these corporations, not help additional Bitcoin DAT growth,” he talked about
While the financial institution doesn’t anticipate widespread promoting from these corporations, it additionally doesn’t anticipate them to underpin costs going ahead.
“We anticipate a consolidation quite than outright promoting, however DAT shopping for is unlikely to offer additional help,” Kendrick mentioned.
ETF Inflows Will Be A Key Support
With company Bitcoin shopping for fading, Kendrick believes the following part of Bitcoin’s value trajectory relies upon nearly entirely on ETFs.
“As a end result, we predict that future Bitcoin value will increase will successfully be pushed by one leg solely, ETF shopping for,” he remarked.
That shift has prompted Standard Chartered to delay its most bullish projections.
“We subsequently decrease our year-end value forecasts for 2026-29 and anticipate Bitcoin to succeed in our long-term value forecast of $500,000 solely in 2030 (versus 2028 beforehand),” Kendrick highlighted.
Still, the financial institution maintains its long-term optimism, simply on an extended timeline.
“We nonetheless suppose this goal is attainable, as portfolio optimisation between Bitcoin and gold continues to indicate that international portfolios are underweight Bitcoin. Investment entry and decision-making by funding committees take time, however we anticipate them to drive giant Bitcoin positive aspects finally,” he added.
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