Fed Cut Already Priced In, Powell’s Tone and 2026 Shift Bullish for Crypto: Nansen

Crypto analysts are watching right this moment’s Federal Reserve assembly carefully, however in keeping with Nansen’s Principal Research Analyst Aurelie Barthere, the speed minimize itself is not the primary story.

In a observe shared with Cryptonews.com, Barthere mentioned markets have already priced Fed charge minimize in, including that what issues now’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tone and the upcoming management transition in early 2026.

Fed to Stick to ‘Wait-and-See’ Approach

Barthere expects the Fed to ship the broadly anticipated 25-basis-point minimize, noting that policymakers are more likely to stress a data-dependent method given the two-month lag in labor-market figures.

“The Fed is more likely to preserve a wait-and-see stance,” she mentioned, including that she expects the terminal charge projection to stay close to 3.0%, reflecting a divided committee.

Beyond right this moment’s resolution, Barthere pointed to the delayed announcement of Kevin Hassett as the subsequent Fed Chair, now anticipated in early 2026, as a probably bullish growth for crypto markets.

A management shift towards a extra growth-friendly stance may strengthen expectations for additional easing subsequent 12 months.

On the technical entrance, Barthere mentioned Bitcoin faces a important check on the $91,000 stage, the place the 20-day EMA converges with a downtrend courting again to October.

BREAKING: There is now a 94% likelihood that the Fed will minimize rates of interest on Wednesday, per Polymarket.

The third charge minimize of 2025 is coming. pic.twitter.com/d7a7coKSDY

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 8, 2025

She expects BTC to commerce round this zone after the FOMC assembly, quite than making a decisive breakout.

The Fed meeting arrives on the finish of a turbulent 12 months for the US economic system, marked by weakening labor situations, rising layoffs, and renewed inflation strain tied to President Donald Trump’s tariff insurance policies.

The central financial institution can be working with restricted recent information because of the U.S. authorities shutdown, which delayed November hiring and inflation releases.

Despite combined alerts, economists overwhelmingly count on one other quarter-point minimize. The CME FedWatch software places the odds of a 25-bps move at 89.4%, which might mark the third consecutive discount and push the federal funds charge into the three.75%–4% vary.

Fed Liquidity Boost Could Send Bitcoin “Sharply Higher,” Analysts Say

As reported, Bitcoin’s climb above $92,000 has stirred fresh optimism amongst market watchers who now consider this week’s Federal Reserve assembly may set off a far larger rally.

Analysts on the London Crypto Club say a liquidity increase from the Fed on Wednesday could act as a strong catalyst, probably driving the world’s largest cryptocurrency “sharply increased.”

In their newest observe, David Brickell and Chris Mills argue that the central financial institution is poised to ship a “dovish shock,” forecasting that policymakers will inject liquidity via a inventive bond-buying mechanism quite than express quantitative easing.

“We’re transferring right into a continued rate-cutting cycle accompanied by steadiness sheet enlargement because the Fed successfully activates the cash printers to monetise the deficit,” they wrote.

Meanwhile, a key on-chain indicator known as “liveliness” is climbing again, whilst Bitcoin’s value motion stays subdued.

Analysts say the divergence suggests renewed underlying demand, with dormant cash transferring at ranges not seen in years, an indication that long-term holders could also be re-entering the market.

Last week, Bitfinex mentioned the market is showing “seller exhaustion” following a interval of heavy deleveraging and panic-driven exits by short-term holders.

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