Pre-FOMC Tension: Will Bitcoin Repeat Its Post-Cut Pattern?

Bitcoin is holding agency above the $92,000 stage after rebounding from final week’s dip towards $90,000, providing bulls a short second of reduction. Yet regardless of this stabilization, market sentiment stays decisively bearish, with many merchants anticipating additional draw back until a transparent shift in momentum emerges. The timing couldn’t be extra essential: the Federal Reserve’s upcoming price resolution has grow to be the central focus for buyers, and the market is bracing for heightened volatility.

According to a brand new CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin’s historic conduct round price cuts gives significant context. Over the years, Fed rate of interest cuts have typically aligned with upward actions in BTC, largely as a result of decrease charges weaken the US greenback, stimulate liquidity, and help danger belongings. However, the report highlights an essential nuance—the instant response is never easy.

In a number of previous cases, Bitcoin rallied forward of price cuts, solely to indicate muted and even detrimental worth motion as soon as the choice was introduced, indicating that markets had already priced within the transfer.

This dynamic creates a layer of uncertainty heading into the FOMC assembly. While macro situations align with long-term bullish tendencies for Bitcoin, the short-term outlook stays fragile, formed by sentiment, positioning, and the market’s anticipation reasonably than the announcement itself.

Historical Patterns Signal Caution Ahead of the FOMC

According to the report by GugaOnChain on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s previous reactions to Federal Reserve price cuts provide a transparent framework for understanding the dangers heading into this week’s FOMC assembly. The historic information paints an image of combined and infrequently counterintuitive conduct.

For instance, following the 25 foundation level cuts in September 2025, Bitcoin barely reacted in any respect. In one other occasion, BTC surged to a four-week high—solely to drop practically $2,000 shortly after, settling right into a interval of muted stability. These reactions underscore how rapidly sentiment can shift as soon as coverage choices are totally priced in.

Volatility has additionally performed a defining function. Both the September and October price choices triggered temporary pre-FOMC rallies, adopted by notable declines as soon as the bulletins have been made. After the September lower, volatility spiked sharply as merchants unwound leveraged positions, revealing how delicate Bitcoin stays to event-driven positioning.

This results in the recurring “purchase the rumor, promote the information” sample, a dynamic that GugaOnChain warns may repeat. Because of this, monitoring market leverage—together with funding charges and open curiosity—is essential. Equally essential are liquidity flows, reminiscent of change reserves and ETF exercise. Together, these indicators assist merchants anticipate short-term worth actions as Bitcoin prepares for one more probably risky macro occasion.

Testing Recovery however Still Below Key Trend Levels

Bitcoin’s weekly chart exhibits the market trying to stabilize above the $92,000 stage after a pointy multi-week correction from the $120,000 area. The latest rebound from the $89,000–$90,000 zone highlights robust demand on the 100-week shifting common (inexperienced line), which is presently performing as a important dynamic help.

Historically, this MA has served as a structural spine for Bitcoin throughout mid-cycle pullbacks, and the newest bounce reinforces its relevance.

However, regardless of the restoration, BTC stays firmly under the 50-week shifting common (blue line), a stage that beforehand marked bullish continuation phases all through 2024 and early 2025. Until worth reclaims this area—now sitting close to $100,000—the broader market construction leans corrective reasonably than impulsively bullish. The decrease highs shaped because the peak additionally counsel that bears nonetheless retain management over the medium-term pattern.

Volume conduct provides one other layer: though shopping for quantity has picked up modestly, it stays considerably weaker than the aggressive promoting stress seen throughout the November–December decline. This signifies that consumers are displaying curiosity, however conviction has but to return in full drive.

Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com