Can Dogecoin Really Fall To $0.05 In 2026? This Analyst Thinks So

Dogecoin merchants have heard the “five-cent” name earlier than. It’s the sort of quantity that appears like bait till value motion begins behaving prefer it would possibly really get there.

On Friday, DOGE was altering arms round $0.140, up barely on the day, whereas bitcoin hovered close to $92,300. That’s the backdrop for a recent warning from YouTube analyst VisionPulsed, who instructed viewers his “base case” is that Dogecoin revisits the $0.05–$0.06 zone over the following 12 months — a window that drags the goal straight into 2026.

Will Dogecoin Crash To $0.05 In 2026?

In the video posted on December 11 and titled “WHY IS DOGECOIN CRASHING!? BITCOIN RALLY COMING OR BULL TRAP FOR 5 CENT DOGE in 2026!?, the gist of his argument is fairly easy: if bitcoin is in a bear regime, DOGE doesn’t want an additional purpose to bleed.

“The base case right here is that Bitcoin has entered a bear market,” he stated, pointing to a cluster of indicators he watches, together with an 8-day shifting common close to $102,000 and the Gaussian Channel. As lengthy as BTC sits under these ranges — he cited roughly $103,000 as a line within the sand — he thinks the trail of least resistance for Dogecoin tendencies down towards 5 cents.

And he wasn’t precisely promoting it as a clear, one-way journey. There’s loads of “chop zone” speak within the video — his time period for the interval the place merchants get whipsawed making an attempt to lengthy bounces and brief dips. “The peanut gallery,” he referred to as it.

His chart-based rationale leans on a well-recognized sample from 2022: even when bitcoin managed a relief rally, DOGE nonetheless printed decrease lows at factors. “There is not any assure that Dogecoin may have a aid rally. As you may see, in 2022, Dogecoin did certainly have a aid rally for the ultimate pump with Bitcoin, […] however you can even see that Bitcoin made increased lows all through the spring as Dogecoin made decrease lows,” he stated.

In his view, a type of “unfinished” spots sits nearer to $0.10 first — after which the uglier quantity comes again into play relying on how bitcoin behaves.

That sequencing issues as a result of it’s precisely the place merchants get themselves into bother. If bitcoin bounces, DOGE would possibly bounce too. Or it may not. VisionPulsed stored hammering that there are “many indicators” suggesting a BTC aid rally is feasible, however “no ensures” Dogecoin participates — some extent he tried to underline by evaluating the present tape to MicroStrategy’s tendency to go flat for weeks earlier than a pointy transfer.

Then there’s his timing framework, which is extra narrative than math however nonetheless broadly utilized in crypto circles: the concept round 140–150 days from a serious high, markets usually produce a remaining significant rally — after which value doesn’t revisit these ranges for a very long time. He cited examples throughout prior cycles (2014, 2018, 2019, 2022) to argue that after bitcoin falls into that “channel” regime, it tends to remain there till the broader downtrend has accomplished its work.

So what does $0.05 really imply from right here? From roughly $0.14, it’s a drawdown of about 64%. That’s violent, however not precisely unique in DOGE historical past — which is why the decision lands with some merchants even when they hate listening to it.

The large escape hatch, per VisionPulsed, is a bitcoin breakout: if BTC makes a brand new all-time high by February, he argues the bearish “base case” will get invalidated and DOGE can do what DOGE does when the market turns risk-on. Until then, he framed $0.05–$0.06 because the boring, brutal probability-weighted consequence.

“So the bottom case for the following 12 months is basically sooner or later Doge will most definitely come down to those 5 to 6 cent vary except Bitcoin goes up and makes a brand new alltime high earlier than February. If Bitcoin makes a brand new all-time high by February, then Doge will keep away from that [$0.05 target] and begin pumping to the moon like everyone desires,” he concluded.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.14.