New Bitcoin chart pattern signals a 2026 “off-year” that could drag prices down to this brutal support level
Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer stated Bitcoin might have accomplished one other halving cycle in each worth and time, and he positioned support within the $65,000–$75,000 zone.
Sharing a “Bitcoin analogs” chart, the Fidelity director of worldwide macro wrote,
“While I stay a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin might effectively have ended one other 4-year cycle halving part, each in worth and time.”
He added that October’s high close to $125,000 match historic bull-market alignments and that “Bitcoin winters have lasted about a yr,” making 2026 a potential “yr off.”
Bitcoin analogs level to a late-cycle cooling part as time catches up with worth
The chart bands Bitcoin’s historical past into bull (inexperienced blocks) and drawdown (crimson blocks) regimes, then overlays prior-cycle “high analogs” (notably 2013 and 2017) to map how late-cycle advances have tended to roll into a cooling window.
Its core message is that the time part has saved tempo with the worth part.
Prior peaks cluster into a topping window adopted by a retracement part that can run shut to a yr, which is why Timmer tied his name to each the rally’s length and the height’s level.
That setup overlaps with a late-cycle framework specified by CryptoSlate’s cycle-clock analysis, which tracked a 2025 peak window by making use of prior halving-to-top timing (about 526 days after the 2016 halving and about 546 days after the 2020 halving).
In that mapping, Bitcoin’s Oct. 6 print close to $126,200 arrived contained in the projected window.
It was adopted by stalled follow-through and broad-range commerce, with key support close to $108,000.
More current tape has examined whether or not the post-peak part is popping into a deeper reset.
A liquidity and positioning read famous Bitcoin’s Nov. 4 dip to about $99,075 and described the transfer as a structural reset amid tighter liquidity and weaker willingness to preserve leveraged longs.
The identical report cited CheckOnChain estimates of roughly $34 billion in month-to-month sell-side strain as older cash returned to exchanges into softer demand.
It additionally highlighted a cost-basis focus, with about 63% of invested capital above $95,000, a level merchants monitor for holder conduct and suggestions loops from forced selling.
Signs of a post-peak reset, and the way deep it could go
Timmer’s $65,000–$75,000 band additionally falls contained in the drawdown math introduced in CryptoSlate’s bear-band mannequin.
The framework notes that prior bear markets have lasted 12 to 18 months, with peak-to-trough declines of round 57% in 2018 and 76% in 2014.
It then argues that ETFs and deeper derivatives could change the trail whereas leaving room for significant draw back.
Using a 35%–55% drawdown band from $126,272 yields a trough zone round $82,000–$57,000, a bracket that comprises Timmer’s support zone and ties it to a clear vary reasonably than a single level goal.
The identical math implies a low window that could land in late 2026 into early 2027 if the reset follows historic length bands.
| 2026 state of affairs | What it seems to be like | Price zone | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| “Off-year” winter (Timmer) | Range commerce, decrease highs, liquidation wicks | $75k–$65k (contained in the ~$82k–$57k drawdown band) | ETF flows keep blended to unfavourable, repeated support assessments, tight liquidity |
| Shallower reset | Drawdown, then uneven base-building | Upper half of the ~$82k–$57k band, drifting towards the mid-$60ks | Outflows stabilize, actual yields ease, fewer pressured sellers |
| Tail-risk deleveraging | Fast unwind with stress narratives taking maintain | Below the band, with a $49k print outlined in one downside thesis | Persistently weak demand, heavier alternate inflows, impaired threat urge for food |
| Cycle extension | Re-acceleration after reclaiming damaged ranges | Back above the prior vary, difficult the post-ATH ceiling | Demand reversal via flows and breakout conduct, fading promote strain |
The largest level of competition is whether or not the four-year template stays a workable baseline or whether or not market construction has diluted it.
In comments on the cycle’s fading affect, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued that ETFs, broader institutional entry, and regulatory progress have lowered the boom-bust mechanics that as soon as outlined the cycle.
He expects ETF-driven adoption to play out over a longer horizon, a view that clashes with the thought of 2026 as a designated “off-year.”
Why 2026’s macro backdrop could flip ETF flows into Bitcoin’s dominant worth driver
Even if cycle timing weakens, macro circumstances can nonetheless form the trail as a result of they affect ETF circulation conduct.
A 2026 macro outlook cited Bank of America’s base case for two.4% US actual GDP progress in 2026 and a charges regime easing towards the mid-3% vary by end-2026, a backdrop that can hold actual yields mildly constructive.
The identical piece famous that Bitcoin ETFs can swing by greater than $1 billion in a day, making ETF flows a primary transmission channel for shifts in yields and the greenback into spot demand.
For 2026, the near-term determination factors cluster round the place holders’ and flows’ support meet.
The $95,000 cost-basis shelf frames a first stress check for positioning, whereas the $76,000 support map sits close to the highest of Timmer’s band and contained in the broader drawdown bracket.
Timmer’s analog framing is that if the final part led to each worth and time, the following part is a winter that can final about a yr, with support centered within the $65,000–$75,000 area.
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