On-Chain Metrics Suggest Shallow Bitcoin Bear Market with $56K Bottom
Given the present state of the crypto market, all on-chain metrics point out {that a} bear cycle is underway. However, the incoming pink season will not be as extreme as earlier ones, in line with an evaluation by CryptoQuant.
The newest weekly report from the market analysis agency revealed that BTC might file a 55% drawdown from its all-time high throughout the bear season. Such a transfer might place the asset’s backside round $56,000, marking the smallest drawdown on file.
BTC Could Bottom at $56K
Historically, bitcoin bear market bottoms have aligned with the realized worth metric. The realized worth is at the moment close to $56,000 and is barely growing. This has led market specialists to consider the incoming bear cycle might be shallow. Notably, analysts anticipate BTC to search out intermediate assist round $70,000.
These predictions come because the bitcoin bull cycle turns bearish amid destructive market situations. Demand progress has slowed, and derivatives markets are experiencing a weakening danger urge for food. With demand waves driving Bitcoin’s four-year cycles, the present drawdown reinforces the assumption that Bitcoin’s behaviour is ruled by expansions and contractions in demand progress.
The market has seen three main demand waves since 2023, pushed by the launch of the United States spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, the U.S. presidential election final result, and the rise of Bitcoin Treasury firms. However, the demand pattern has reversed since early October 2025, suggesting that this cycle has realized the majority of its incremental demand wave.
Unfortunately, bear seasons have a tendency to start when demand progress peaks and rolls over, no matter provide aspect dynamics.
The Onset of the Bear Market
Furthermore, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have become web sellers in This autumn 2025, sustaining a pattern that sharply contrasts the robust accumulation seen in This autumn 2024. By this time final 12 months, ETF holdings had risen from 293,000 BTC to 496,000 BTC; nonetheless, they’ve declined by 24,000 BTC this 12 months. Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC at the moment are echoing the decreased demand recorded on the finish of 2021, simply earlier than the 2022 bear market.
On the derivatives entrance, the 365-day shifting common of perpetual futures funding charges has fallen to its lowest stage in two years. This signifies that traders are much less prepared to keep up lengthy publicity – this sample is usually noticed throughout bear phases.
The publish On-Chain Metrics Suggest Shallow Bitcoin Bear Market with $56K Bottom appeared first on CryptoPotato.