Fundstrat Predicts Ethereum Drop To $1,800 In H1 2026

A screenshot attributed to Fundstrat Research is stirring debate over whether or not Tom Lee’s agency is projecting a pointy first-half 2026 correction in crypto markets—regardless of Lee’s latest public bullishness on Ethereum.

Wu Blockchain shared the picture through X, describing it as an inner consumer notice titled “2026 Crypto Outlook: Near-Term Headwinds, Second-Half Upside,” timestamped Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025 at 7:34 p.m. ET.

Fundstrat’s Bearish Call Vs. Tom Lee’s Bull Case

The doc is credited to Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset technique, and features a base-case state of affairs calling for a “significant drawdown in 1H 2026,” with goal ranges of bitcoin at $60,000–$65,000, ether at $1,800–$2,000, and solana at $50–$75. The notice provides that these ranges would symbolize “enticing alternatives into year-end,” and that if the view is mistaken, the desire remains to be to “play protection” till power is confirmed.

The ETH vary is what set the market chatter off. Ether is buying and selling across the $3,000 space, making $1,800 a fabric draw back state of affairs if taken at face worth.

The controversy, equivalent to it’s, comes from the proximity to Lee’s personal messaging. At Binance Blockchain Week, Lee stated ethereum at roughly $3,000 appeared “severely undervalued,” a stance that reads very otherwise than a analysis framework explicitly mapping a possible transfer to the high-$1,000s. Over the previous few weeks, Lee even publicly shared his predictions that ETH could reach $20,000 next year and $62,000 over the subsequent a number of years.

Farrell responded instantly on X on Dec. 20, arguing the framing of “inner battle” misunderstands how Fundstrat operates. The agency, he stated, homes a number of analysts with impartial processes, every designed for various consumer targets and time horizons.

Lee’s work, Farrell wrote, is aimed toward massive establishments that may allocate 1%–5% to BTC and ETH and is structured round longer-term macro and “secular” traits. Farrell’s analysis, against this, is positioned for buyers with heavier crypto publicity—he referenced portfolios with ~20%+ allocations—the place lively threat administration and rebalancing matter greater than sustaining a single long-duration thesis by way of volatility.

That distinction is central to deciphering the leaked-style targets. Farrell’s public clarification wasn’t “we’re bearish,” however moderately “we’re cautious within the close to time period.” He stated markets seem priced for “near-perfection” whereas dangers stay elevated—citing authorities shutdown dynamics, commerce volatility, uncertainty round AI capex, and a Federal Reserve chair transition, alongside tight high-yield spreads and low cross-asset volatility.

He additionally highlighted blended circulation situations. In Farrell’s telling, long-term ETF demand might enhance as wirehouses onboard, however near-term pressures persist from “OG selling,” miners, fund redemptions, and even the potential for an MSCI MicroStrategy delisting—an merchandise that stood out as a result of it suggests the danger lens extends past spot crypto into the crypto-equity advanced that has turn into a key liquidity and sentiment barometer.

Farrell’s acknowledged base case: “an early-year bounce adopted by one other 1H drawdown, making a extra enticing alternative into year-end.If I’m mistaken, I’d moderately look ahead to affirmation (pattern breaks, flows, momentum, or a transparent catalyst). Crypto is reflexive, and for my goal, endurance issues in no-man’s land.”

The thread ends on a degree many readers missed within the preliminary screenshot-driven outrage cycle: Farrell nonetheless expects BTC and ETH to “problem new ATHs by year-end,” describing a shorter, shallower bear that would compress the standard four-year cycle narrative. “For those that tuned into the outlook: I nonetheless count on BTC and ETH to problem new ATHs by year-end, successfully ending the standard four-year cycle with a shorter, shallower bear,” he wrote through X.

At press time, Ethereum traded at $3,043.