Midnight (NIGHT) Price is Plummeting — But Big Holders Are Still Buying

Cardano’s Midnight (NIGHT) token has had a robust begin, however momentum is now not one-way. NIGHT worth is nonetheless up practically 300% from its post-launch lows. Over the previous seven days, it stays up near 70%. But the tone has shifted quick.

In the final 24 hours alone, the NIGHT worth has dropped by roughly 10%, now buying and selling at round $0.095.

That pullback issues as a result of it comes with blended alerts beneath the floor. Some information factors level to continued accumulation by massive gamers.

Others counsel promoting stress is constructing, particularly from change inflows probably tied to the airdrop. As January 2026 approaches, the following transfer will rely much less on euphoria and extra on whether or not huge cash continues to step in.

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Big Wallets Are Accumulating Midnight, however Exchange Supply Is Rising

On-chain holder information exhibits a transparent break up between conduct sorts.

Exchange balances for NIGHT jumped sharply over the previous 24 hours. Exchange holdings elevated by 17.97%, pushing complete change balances to roughly 166.14 million NIGHT tokens. That rise strongly suggests elevated promoting exercise.

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Given Midnight’s recent airdrop and tranche-based distribution, a big a part of this stream is seemingly early recipients transferring tokens to exchanges to comprehend features.

At the identical time, mega whales are doing the other.

The high 100 addresses elevated their holdings by 1.52% over the previous 24 hours, whilst the value moved decrease. This corresponds to roughly 3.6 million NIGHT tokens added on a crimson day.

Over the previous seven days, these identical mega whales have elevated their holdings by greater than 5.6%, persevering with to purchase each dips and power whereas the price climbed nearly 70%.

This divergence is vital. Exchange inflows mirror short-term promoting stress, usually retail-driven. Mega whale accumulation displays longer-term positioning.

For January 2026, the steadiness between these two forces will matter greater than headline worth strikes.

Capital Flow and Momentum Show Big Money Still Matters Most

The whale information doesn’t stand alone. It traces up carefully with what capital stream and momentum indicators are displaying on the chart.

We begin with On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV tracks whether or not quantity is flowing into an asset or out of it. On the 4-hour chart, OBV has pulled again alongside worth over the previous 24 hours. That exhibits short-term shopping for stress has weakened. For now, the NIGHT worth future is dependent upon OBV staying above the trendline.

But OBV weak point alone doesn’t inform the total story.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) provides an vital layer. CMF measures whether or not huge capital is coming into or leaving the market.

CMF moved above the zero line on December 20 and has stayed optimistic since. While it has flattened over the previous day, it has not turned decrease. More importantly, between December 22 and December 23, NIGHT’s price moved down on the 4-hour chart whereas CMF continued to rise. That is a bullish divergence.

It means that whilst costs softened, bigger wallets have been nonetheless absorbing provide within the background.

This validates the Nansen information displaying mega whales including in the course of the dip, whilst change balances elevated.

One Metric That Shows How Important Big Money Is

The VWAP, or Volume-Weighted Average Price, helps join these alerts. VWAP represents the typical worth paid, weighted by quantity, and sometimes acts as a short-term pattern information. NIGHT slipped beneath the VWAP on December 22 and has struggled to reclaim it up to now. That exhibits near-term weak point and explains why worth momentum has stalled.

However, this precise setup has already performed out as soon as. On December 15, NIGHT also traded beneath the VWAP. At that point, CMF was rising from detrimental territory, signaling rising capital inflows. As CMF strengthened, worth reclaimed the VWAP shortly and continued larger. The worth rise was extra aggressive when the CMF traded above the zero line.

That historical past issues. For new tokens, VWAP breaks are frequent throughout early distribution phases. What decides the end result is not the VWAP itself, however whether or not capital stream helps a restoration, like earlier.

In easy phrases, short-term merchants are stepping again (probably reserving earnings), however bigger gamers haven’t exited. As lengthy as CMF stays optimistic and whales proceed so as to add on dips, the present weak point seems extra like consolidation than a full pattern break.

This retains huge cash as the important thing variable heading into January 2026.

Derivatives and NIGHT Price Action Define the January 2026 Risk Zone

With capital stream slowing, derivatives positioning turns into crucial heading into January.

Current liquidation information over the following 7 days exhibits a market that is nonetheless long-biased. On Binance, lengthy liquidation publicity stands close to $3.6 million, in comparison with roughly $2.9 million on the brief aspect. That imbalance narrowed after the latest drop, however longs nonetheless dominate.

This creates a fragile setup.

If the NIGHT price continues to weaken whereas staying beneath VWAP, lengthy positions develop into susceptible. A transfer towards $0.08 would seemingly set off compelled liquidations, accelerating draw back. That state of affairs aligns with weakening OBV and stalled CMF.

Key 12-hour worth ranges body January clearly:

• $0.101 is the primary stage NIGHT should reclaim. A clear transfer above it might ease rapid stress.
• $0.120 is the actual affirmation stage. A day by day shut above it might place NIGHT again into worth discovery and invalidate the present weak point.
• $0.071 stays crucial draw back assist. A break beneath it might expose deeper retracements towards $0.057 and $0.040.

For January 2026, the trail is direct. If whales proceed to build up, CMF rises once more, and worth reclaims VWAP, NIGHT can stabilize and try one other enlargement part. If capital assist fades whereas leverage stays long-heavy, the market dangers a liquidation-driven reset earlier than any sustainable pattern emerges.

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