Fact check: Bitcoin never really hit $100,000 in 2025 when you apply real world data
On the day Bitcoin lastly punched by $100,000, lots of people did the identical factor.
They screenshotted it.
They despatched it to group chats, posted it with rocket emojis, and pulled up outdated tweets from 2021 to mud off the victory laps they’d been saving for years. It felt like closure, just like the market had walked all the way in which again to a promise it made a very long time in the past.
Then a chart began circulating, the form of chart that quietly takes the wind out of the room.
It acquired amplified by the likes of Alex Thorn, head of analysis at Galaxy. The takeaway was easy, and a bit merciless, if you have been emotionally invested in the quantity itself.
If you alter Bitcoin’s worth for inflation, utilizing 2020 {dollars}, Bitcoin never really crossed $100,000. It topped just under it, round $99,848 in real phrases.
That will not be a dunk on Bitcoin, it’s not a “gotcha” for anybody who cheered the milestone. It is a reminder that cash adjustments beneath us, even when the sticker worth stays the identical.
And in this cycle, that distinction issues greater than folks wish to admit.
The quantity that moved whereas we have been watching
If you ask most individuals what inflation does, they’ll say it makes issues dearer. That is true, however it’s only half the story. The different half is that inflation adjustments what a greenback means.
A $100 invoice in 2020 and a $100 invoice in late 2025 don’t purchase the identical basket of stuff, they don’t carry the identical weight, they don’t symbolize the identical quantity of labor, lease, groceries, or time.
Bitcoin trades in {dollars}, at the very least in the way in which most headlines describe it. So when Bitcoin hits an enormous spherical quantity, that quantity is tied to the worth of the greenback at that second, not the worth of the greenback in your reminiscence.
That sounds summary till you put precise math on it.
Using the US CPI for CPI-U, the common degree in 2020 was about 258.8, and by late 2025 the index is in the mid 320s. You may see the 2020 annual averages immediately in the BLS annual CPI table. That hole tells you the greenback misplaced a significant chunk of its buying energy since 2020.
When you translate at this time’s nominal costs into 2020 {dollars}, you multiply by roughly 0.8, give or take relying on whether or not you use not seasonally adjusted CPIAUCNS or seasonally adjusted CPIAUCSL.
That means $100,000 in late 2025 {dollars} strains up nearer to about $80,000 in 2020 {dollars}.
The milestone folks have been cheering was real, it simply was not the identical milestone the web thinks it’s.
If you need Bitcoin to be value $100,000 in 2020 buying energy at this time, the nominal worth needs to be nearer to $125,000.
Which is awkward, as a result of Bitcoin’s cycle peak landed in that neighborhood. Reuters has tracked the 2025 run in its Bitcoin 2025 price graphic, and loads of protection across the peak clustered in the $125,000 vary.
If you plug the high right into a easy CPI deflator, you get one thing that lands proper on the sting of $100,000 in 2020 {dollars}. That is why the “did it or didn’t it” framing is a photograph end, and it might probably swing barely based mostly on methodology.
The deeper level holds both method.
The tape measure modified, and folks stored arguing concerning the size.
Why this issues now, and why it is going to matter much more later
Normally, inflation-adjusted Bitcoin charts are a enjoyable nerd train. This time, they’re one thing nearer to a actuality test.
This cycle has been outlined by establishments displaying up by spot Bitcoin ETFs, a wave of macro narratives that stored flipping each few weeks, and a market that spent lengthy stretches appearing prefer it was tethered to fee expectations.
When you put Bitcoin’s worth in real phrases, you drive the dialog into a spot that establishments dwell on a regular basis.
Real returns.
A pension fund doesn’t care that an asset is up 20% in nominal phrases if inflation is sizzling and the danger free fee is enticing. A treasury desk doesn’t receives a commission for vibes. If Bitcoin desires to mature right into a real macro asset, it will definitely needs to be judged the identical method all the things else is judged, which is what did you earn after inflation, and what did you earn relative to options.
That is the half retail merchants not often take into consideration when they’re celebrating a spherical quantity, as a result of spherical numbers really feel like progress.
And to be honest, progress is real right here.
Bitcoin went from being declared useless at $16,000 to pushing six figures once more. That will not be small. But the inflation adjusted lens adjustments how you describe what occurred.
It tells you Bitcoin made a large nominal comeback, and it additionally tells you the market has not pushed as far previous its outdated psychological frontier because the headlines indicate.
That will not be bearish, it’s simply sincere.
It additionally units up the subsequent chapter, as a result of the “real” model of $100,000 retains transferring larger each month.
The bizarre twist, CPI itself acquired blurry proper when Bitcoin peaked
There is one more reason this complete debate has gotten traction, and it’s nearly poetic.
The inflation yardstick acquired messy this cycle.
During the 2025 lapse in appropriations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics stated CPI operations have been suspended for a interval, and Reuters reported that the shutdown compelled the cancellation of October’s CPI release, which was a primary.
So you have this second the place the market is attempting to evaluate whether or not Bitcoin actually reclaimed a historic degree in real phrases, and the inflation data wanted to settle the argument acquired twisted up in a real world disruption.
Even when the data is out there, there are decisions. Seasonally adjusted CPIAUCSL, not seasonally adjusted CPIAUCNS, annual averages versus a selected month base, headline CPI versus different variants. None of those are unsuitable, however they produce barely completely different solutions, particularly when you are coping with a decent margin like $99,848 versus $100,000.
This is why it’s a mistake to put in writing a narrative that treats the inflation adjusted declare as a clear binary.
The story is larger than that.
The story is that Bitcoin’s greatest milestone is not a set level, it’s a transferring goal, and the macro backdrop has made the distinction significant.
The market’s submit peak hangover tells you folks already really feel it
The easiest technique to inform whether or not a milestone had lasting energy is what the market does after the celebration.
In this case, Bitcoin pulled again arduous after the October high. By December, a number of market studies had Bitcoin down roughly 30% from the height, and it stopped feeling just like the $100,000 period was immediately secure.
The institutional wrapper instructed the same story. US spot Bitcoin ETF AUM peaked round $169.5 billion on Oct. 6 and fell to roughly $120.7 billion by Dec. 4, in accordance with CryptoSlate’s compilation of the data, utilizing public trackers and fund reporting, you can see the main points in CryptoSlate’s AUM breakdown, and cross-check it in opposition to chart hubs like The Block’s live ETF charts.
Lots of that’s worth affect slightly than mass exits, however the course nonetheless issues.
This is the place the inflation-adjusted framing turns into helpful once more.
The market acquired near the nominal worth required to match a $100,000 real degree in 2020 {dollars}, and it couldn’t maintain it. Maybe that was leverage getting washed out, perhaps it was macro uncertainty, perhaps it was easy exhaustion after an enormous run.
Either method, the result’s a market that did the arduous half, breaking into six figures, after which struggled to transform the emotional win right into a secure new flooring.
That is how you get a cycle that feels prefer it modified all the things, and likewise feels prefer it left one thing unfinished.
On-chain data says the muse is stronger than the temper
Here is the half that retains this from turning right into a downer story.
Under the floor, Bitcoin’s price foundation image seems to be sturdier than the value motion suggests.
This 12 months, Bitcoin’s realized cap hit a file of round $1.125 trillion, which is a method of claiming extra cash are sitting at larger price bases than ever earlier than. Realized cap will not be a magic indicator, however it does seize one thing real about adoption and long-term holders. It suggests the community is absorbing capital at larger ranges over time.
So you have a market that, in real buying energy phrases, continues to be arguing about whether or not it actually cleared a historic line, and you even have a market the place the underlying “common paid” is rising and setting new data.
These can each be true.
It is one cause Bitcoin retains surviving these emotional whiplash cycles. The worth is unstable, and the muse quietly thickens.
What comes subsequent, three paths that matter greater than the subsequent candle
If you take the inflation-adjusted lens severely, the query stops being “did Bitcoin hit $100,000” and turns into “what has to occur for Bitcoin to ship meaningfully new real highs.”
There are three broad methods this will play out over the subsequent 12 months, and none of them rely on vibes.
1) Disinflation and easing make nominal highs matter once more
If inflation cools alongside the trail policymakers have projected, and the Fed begins reducing extra confidently, the nominal hurdle for real milestones rises extra slowly. In that world, a return to the prior nominal peak carries extra real which means. The market will get to maintain extra of what it earns.
If you wish to anchor that in official forecasts, the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections lays out inflation expectations out by 2028.
2) Inflation stays sticky and the market prints nominal highs that really feel hole
If inflation runs hotter than anticipated, or data uncertainty retains markets jumpy, you can find yourself with a cycle the place Bitcoin makes new nominal highs and nonetheless doesn’t look spectacular in buying energy phrases.
It can be a world the place larger real yields stay a headwind. When real yields are enticing, holding any unstable asset has a better alternative price. You can observe that macro strain by measures just like the 10 year TIPS real yield.
3) ETF demand re accelerates and brute forces a real breakout
Citi’s framework for 2026 features a base case round $143,000, a bull case above $189,000, and a bear case round $78,500, with ETF flows and adoption sitting close to the middle of the story. MarketWatch summarized that forecast right here, Citi’s $143,000 call.
You wouldn’t have to deal with these numbers as future to take the construction severely.
If ETF demand reaccelerates, the market can push by the inflation-adjusted hurdles even when the macro surroundings is messy. The factor to observe isn’t just worth, it’s whether or not ETF belongings and flows shift into a brand new regime slightly than bouncing round with the identical momentum cycles we’ve already seen.
The human half, that is what inflation does to each dream measured in {dollars}
People don’t get emotional about CPI indices. They get emotional about milestones.
A primary house. A six-figure wage. A retirement quantity. A Bitcoin worth goal.
Inflation is the quiet drive that makes you hit the objective and nonetheless really feel like you are behind, as a result of the objective moved whereas you have been operating towards it.
That is what makes this chart sting. It will not be telling you Bitcoin failed, it’s telling you the world modified.
Bitcoin is commonly bought as a hedge in opposition to that form of change, a technique to step outdoors the gradual leak of fiat buying energy. So it’s becoming, in a darkly humorous method, that probably the most well-known fiat milestone in Bitcoin historical past can be the one inflation quietly rewrote.
If you need yet one more macro hook for that backdrop, Reuters famous the greenback’s tough 12 months in late 2025 reporting, together with a pointy annual slide tied to looser coverage expectations.
If you desire a clear takeaway, it’s this.
Six figures was an enormous second, it nonetheless is, and the subsequent real milestone is already larger than most individuals assume. If Bitcoin desires to really feel like it’s coming into a brand new period, it must clear ranges that sound a bit absurd at this time, partly as a result of Bitcoin is Bitcoin, partly as a result of the greenback retains shrinking in real phrases.
That is the half that makes this story greater than a chart.
The subsequent time Bitcoin hits a spherical quantity, the primary query value asking will not be whether or not the quantity is real, it’s what the quantity buys.
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