70% of Polymarket Traders Lost Money as Top 0.04% Captured Most Profits: Data
Among over 1.7 million buying and selling addresses on Polymarket, roughly 70% have realized losses whereas simply 30% turned a revenue, in response to information from blockchain analyst DeFi Oasis.
The findings reveal stark focus on the high, with fewer than 0.04% of addresses capturing over 70% of whole realized earnings, a collective $3.7 billion.
The evaluation examined transaction information to calculate realized revenue and loss throughout Polymarket’s consumer base.
Most worthwhile merchants earned modest returns between $0 and $1,000, representing 24.56% of all addresses however capturing simply 0.86% of whole earnings.
Earning greater than $1,000 required rating within the high 4.9% of individuals.
Extreme Profit Concentration Mirrors Traditional Markets
The information exhibits 668 addresses with earnings exceeding $1 million accounted for 71% of all realized positive factors, whereas simply 2,551 merchants earned between $100,000 and $1 million.
At the opposite finish, over 1.1 million addresses, 63.5% of the whole, recorded losses between $0 and $1,000, although 149 addresses misplaced greater than $1 million every.
DeFi Oasis famous the calculation technique tracks whole sale proceeds plus redemption quantities minus buy prices, excluding unrealized positive factors or losses.
Traders holding massive open positions might present considerably unfavourable realized returns regardless of potential paper earnings.
The skewed distribution displays broader patterns in prediction markets, the place skilled merchants and complex algorithms usually extract worth from retail individuals.
This revelation got here at a time when Polymarket is facing scrutiny over potential conflicts of interest as platforms, together with Crypto.com and Kalshi, construct inner market-making desks that commerce instantly towards customers.
Platform Growth Continues Despite Concentration Concerns
Polymarket has maintained momentum regardless of the lopsided revenue distribution, with month-to-month lively merchants approaching 462,600 and volumes surging previous earlier data.
The platform completed beta testing for its US relaunch in November after three years offshore following a $1.4 million CFTC settlement in 2022.
Founder Shayne Coplan, now a self-made billionaire at 27, lately participated in a regulatory roundtable convened by the SEC and CFTC.
The platform’s post-money valuation has climbed to $9 billion following vital investments, together with a $2 billion commitment from Intercontinental Exchange, proprietor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin lately defended prediction markets against critics who view betting on real-world occasions as morally questionable.
Ethereum co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, argues prediction markets present higher accountability than social media regardless of moral considerations over betting.#Vitalik #PredictionMarkethttps://t.co/YKjWuhM5x0
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) December 21, 2025
He argued these platforms supply superior truth-seeking mechanisms in comparison with social media, the place sensationalism faces no accountability.
Buterin famous that monetary stakes implement accuracy, with costs bounded between 0 and 1, lowering the reflexivity results frequent in conventional markets.
The protection sparked a heated debate with Quilibrium founder Cassie Heart, who questioned the ethics of benefiting from potential deaths and disasters.
Heart advised prediction markets on catastrophic occasions clarify mainstream hostility towards crypto, although Buterin maintained that inventory markets pose related ethical hazards by means of brief positions.
Competition Intensifies as Major Exchanges Enter Space
Google Finance integrated live data from Polymarket and Kalshi in November, surfacing market chances instantly in search outcomes.
The function permits customers to question future occasions and monitor how odds shift over time alongside adjustments in historic sentiment.
FanDuel launched its FanDuel Predicts platform in December by means of a partnership with CME Group, providing occasion contracts on crypto costs, commodities, and financial indicators.
Coinbase filed lawsuits against Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut in December, difficult state authority over prediction markets forward of its January 2026 launch with Kalshi.
@Coinbase has filed lawsuits towards the US states of Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut, escalating a rising authorized struggle.#Coinbase #Cryptohttps://t.co/hTmVsGS8yu
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) December 19, 2025
The speedy mainstream adoption continues regardless of regulatory uncertainty.
Combined buying and selling quantity throughout main platforms reached $44 billion in 2024, with on-chain prediction markets climbing from beneath $100 million month-to-month in early 2024 to greater than $13 billion. Kalshi raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation.
The focus information arrives as prediction markets cement their position in retail buying and selling cycles, although the findings recommend most individuals subsidize earnings for a tiny elite.
As it stands now, whether or not regulatory readability and institutional entry will enhance outcomes for retail merchants stays unsure.
The submit 70% of Polymarket Traders Lost Money as Top 0.04% Captured Most Profits: Data appeared first on Cryptonews.
