Lighter (LIT) Fights Off Post-Listing Sell Pressure — What’s Next for Price?
Lighter (LIT), the token backing the newly launched decentralized perpetuals change, remains to be discovering stability after its airdrop-driven debut. LIT trades close to $2.73 after slipping at launch, but post-listing efficiency has held higher than anticipated.
Despite contemporary tokens hitting the market, the worth continues to hover above its post-listing low. Buyers are exhibiting up, however conviction remains to be skinny.
The query now’s whether or not this power is an actual assist or only a non permanent cushioning earlier than sellers take management.
Capital Flows Signal Early Strength
Early cash alerts present capital returning throughout dips.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures huge cash getting into or exiting an asset by means of volume-weighted strain, has trended larger on the 15-minute chart whereas worth has trended decrease from December 30–31. That is a bullish divergence. It hints that giant patrons are absorbing provide at the same time as volatility cools off. And that too when it’s common for the post-airdrop sellers to indicate up.
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Money Flow Index (MFI), which tracks shopping for strain by means of worth and quantity, exhibits the identical habits: larger highs in MFI whereas worth continues to development decrease, mildly. It suggests dip-buying exercise and retail assist through the Lighter sell-off.
This twin divergence issues. It exhibits that promoting from airdropped tokens is being met with capital moderately than capitulation. Whales getting into the ecosystem additionally validate this power. Recent blockchain information exhibits giant wallets swapping into LIT after launch, aligning with CMF’s rising development.
If these capital inflows proceed, the Lighter worth can intention to rise larger.
If CMF rolls over and drops again beneath its equilibrium band whereas MFI fails to carry present momentum (because it’s within the overheated territory), the supportive thesis weakens.
Short-Term Strength Exists, But Needs Confirmation
On a decrease timeframe, early construction exhibits what patrons should defend.
LIT continues to trade above VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) on the 15-minute chart. VWAP displays real-time honest worth, and holding above it alerts patrons controlling the intraday development. Each retest of VWAP, which is round $2.62 (at current), has been met with shopping for assist.
This exhibits that the decrease ranges are being purchased fairly aggressively, one thing that even the MFI divergence hinted at.
But affirmation is lacking.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) on the 1-hour chart, which measures whether or not quantity is flowing with worth or in opposition to it, stays under a descending trendline. This tells us that capital influx exists, however quantity conviction doesn’t. That exhibits uncooked LIT promoting strain remains to be limiting the upside.
Until OBV breaks the trendline, upside makes an attempt could stall earlier than gaining momentum.
If OBV breaks above its trendline whereas VWAP protection holds, the construction shifts from reactive to constructive. An in depth above $3.08 can be the primary signal that patrons are able to problem larger zones.
Strength above that degree might open room for continuation towards $3.25 and even $3.72, which aligns with Fibonacci extension ones above the post-launch high close to $2.97.
Lighter Price Levels That Decide The First Real Trend
LIT now sits inside a slim determination zone, principally buying and selling between $2.48 and $2.77. Defending $2.62 on decrease timeframes (VWAP line) and $2.48 on larger timeframes retains the bullish setup alive. Clearing $3.08 with OBV affirmation turns the chart from early assist right into a construction able to enlargement and makes a transfer towards $3.25–$3.72 achievable if quantity follows.
If $2.48 breaks with a 1-hour candle shut, the downward projections are available in. If CMF and MFI roll over, and OBV stays capped beneath its trendline, construction flips from supportive to susceptible. A break under $2.48 exposes $2.38 and $2.07 if post-listing liquidity drains beneath strain.
At this stage, patrons are current however not dominant. The bullish case rests on supportive indicators moderately than a confirmed breakout construction.
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